America First - The impact of Trump 2.0 on India & the World
Some events define the course of history. The American elections on November 5th 2024 leading to victory of President elect Donald Trump could be one of the most significant moment of the decade. In my book “The Great Reset” (2022) in its introduction i had explained about how trade wars have defined history and have always lead to military wars. I still remember on 21st January 2017 President Donald Trump declared “America First” in his first speech from the capitol hill building. On hearing that my first reaction was mark this date as a seminal one in history after 9/11 WTC attacks. The sense of my tweet was that the elite establishment has declared war on the current global order and this will add chaos globally ultimately leading to the military war and a great reset. That is exactly what i had opined in the introductory part in my book in 2022.
The Coming of Trump 2.0: Battle for America’s Soul
Ever since 2016 elections where Hillary Clinton lost in a close election to Donald Trump amid allegations of Russian interference, the American policy and society has been bitterly divided. Mass protests erupted which was followed by President Donald Trump unleashing a trade war against China, Europe with trade tariffs and protectionist policies under the banner of “America First”. The ‘America First’ policy is essentially fight between American nationalism and British (Anglo-American) free trade radicals. I have captured backstory of this in my article on the ‘American Civil War’ Part 1 & Part 2 from where i am quoting few paras as below:
“The American Civil was geo economic tug of war between the American nationalists lead by Abraham Lincoln in the Republican Party and the British agents the American political system across party that sought to convert America into appendage of the British banking oligarchical elite.”
“Thus American Civil War nothing but a tug of war between American Nationalists & British Agents/Banking Oligarchs i.e. American System Vs British System of Free Trade. This fight of free trade radicals serving the interest Anglo-American Establishment vs American interests per se still continue. The Trumpian GOP is in a way symptomatic of that tussle however the level of control the deep state has over American banking & debt is far higher now. The underwriting of American empire born of war & peace study post 1945-48 resulted in Bretten woods conference leading to establishment of IMF, World Bank, US $ as Reserve Currency which went various transformation from a gold backed one to a Petro Dollar one under Nixon.”
“I have explained this #PaxAmericana in my book #TheGreatReset (2022) ! In effect the American empire today & Dollar hegemony is underwritten by trade deficits. If America were to undo that as Trump wanted, will destroy its Dollar Hegemony and along with it destroy American Empire. The conflict is thus between American nationalist who are ready to foresake American empire in favour of great industrialized nation as Lincoln had imagined. Other side are globalists who prefer an indebted American with its military & NATO serving the military of the Oligarchs”
“The British Banking Oligarchs took gradual control over American banking & financial system but Russian Empire was still out of their bounds. The made Russian Empire a target of European Aristocracy, in the Russo Japanese war which is also called the Bankers War they inflicted a humiliating defeat on Russian Empire which crippled it. Then came the Bolshevik Revolution sponsored by the same Wall Street elite. Many Bolsheviks sailed from New York into Europe and onwards into Russia; wherein the Russian Empire was ultimately taken down with Russian royal family of Czar and his family being brutally massacred. The Communist backed Soviet Russia was born.
How the Communist ideology was abetted by Wall Street (British American Oligarchy) in Russia and even China is known facet which we covered in detail in our book #TheNewGlobalOrder (2016) ! United States even since has been under the thumb of this Oligarchy ! While Russia after suffering for decades under Communism and Yeltsin, is seeking to revive its old empirical glory under Vladimir Putin. On the other hand Trumpian GOP is now essentially a revolt against this Oligarchical elite based in New York & run from London.
However as i stated earlier neither of the countries now stand independent enough to foist a global order. America is in deeply indebted to British American oligarchy and its financial system, the Russian are degraded by sanctions & perpetual war in Ukraine. The Chinese on the other hand are equally not ready yet to foist their global order. Their economy is linked at the hip with the American empire. So in sum & substance; the wall street (British American Oligarchy) will hit the reset button. This global order has to wind down, it has now too many suitors. Who better than the Manchurian Candidate ‘TRUMP’ ! Yes wind down American Trade deficits with America First and dethrone US Dollar creating chaos & seeding conflicts across the war”
Thus the fight between American nationalists in Republican party with America First and Free Trade globalists is in essence the battle for soul of America. The American nationalists believe in restoring the greatness of America as a manufacturing giant that is self sufficient in resources. The base of American nationalism backing President Trump is conservative Christian whites and evangelists who believe their America is being taken over by hoards of illegal immigrants from the southern border, they subscribe to orthodox Christian values which are pro life and anti-abortion. The conservative base abhor the neo-liberal cults of Wokeism, Cultural Marxists who have captured American universities and feel they are a threat to orthodox family values.
The American nationalism of America First along with conservative ideology also detests the free trade globalists who they have believe have got America into free trade agreements that has destroyed and de-industrialized America’s manufacturing prowess leading to massive outsourcing of production lines. The shifting of American manufacturing to China, South East Asia and other parts of the world along with high inflation and peak interest rates over the last few years since Covid-19 meant that the era of cheap money where American consumers could happily binge on is over. The resultant job losses, tightening of monetary policy by US Federal Reserve further fueled this sentiment of disenchantment with the establishment elite in Washington DC making people believe that the system is broken and not working for an average American.
The average American felt helpless on the margins of society unable to pay his mortgages, student loans, gasoline and grocery bills increasing his overall cost of living with inflation hitting the American businesses hard. As the saying goes “Its the economy stupid” ! The American nationalists trumpeted by Donald Trump and the Republican Party launched a sophisticated clinical campaign with aid of silicon valley technocrats who amplified the message for an average American that we shall drain the swamp, fix the system i.e. federal bureaucracy and dismantle the deep state. The messaging resonated very well with the people. President Trump also built a coalition with Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate (VP), Hawain Hindu leader Tulsi Gabbard, Robert Kennedy Jr. who criss-crossed America from coast to coast to spread the message of “Make America Great Again” by placing America First at the top.
However as i always say never believe a messaging of a politician specially the ones in today’s America who are backed by silicon valley technocrats. Let us now aim to skim through the backers of Trump campaign and what agenda they bring to the fore. The Trump campaign was ably funded by business tycoons from silicon valley like Elon Musk and Venture Capitalist like Peter Thiel. Peter Thiel when he was a student at Stanford university was deeply influenced by Rene Girard. Girard had pointed out that human’s competitive behavior was holding scientific and technological progress back. Peter Thiel adopted that view that corporate monopiles are indeed good thing and that society can be shaped with technological progress which does not need democratic approval. In his view rather Democracies were a hindrance to development of human kind. Peter Thiel’s thought process was visible at Libertopia, 2010, where he said as follows:
“The initial founding vision was that we were going to use technology to change the whole world and basically overturn the monetary system of the world… We could never win an election on getting certain things because we were in such a small minority, but maybe you could unilateral change the world without having to constantly convince people and beg people and plead with people who are never going to agree with you through technological means, and this is where I think technology is this incredible alternative to politics.”
Peter joined up with a few young engineers building a new way to send payment digitally, pretty revolutionary in the late 90s. The company started as ‘Confinity’ a play on “infinite confidence.” It briefly became x.com, as his partner Elon Musk insisted, but it eventually became PayPal. In a PayPal all-hands meeting in 2001, Thiel told the full staff “the ability to move money fluidly and the erosion of the nation-state are closely related” as they were building a system to move money fluidly. But just a few months later PayPal went public with an IPO just after 9/11. His next company was Palantir a surveillance and data tech outfit where the funding came from In-Q-Tel, a non-profit venture capital firm dedicated to funding projects that would be helpful to the CIA. The firm isn’t officially run by the CIA, but there is a revolving door of staff between the two, and the firm is colloquially referred to as “the CIA’s private equity firm”. Palantir eventually did help the CIA and the FBI and the CDC and a host of other governmental organizations.
Peter Thiel also backed 2022 Republican Senate candidate JD Vance in Ohio who is now the vice president elect of USA. I have written in detail about it in my previous post on the connection between Donald Trump, JD Vance, Peter Thiel and the Deep State. Peter Thiel is one of the cogs in the wheel of the new Republican Party under Donald Trump along with Billionaire Elon Musk who took over Twitter (now X) and has worked with Pentagon in deploying Starlink in Ukraine and SpaceX collaboration with NASA. Jelmer Ossterloo in his blog quotes as follows “The New Republican Party” (11th November 2024):
“Thiel has been instrumental in cultivating like-minded figures within the Republican Party. One of his most significant recruits is J.D. Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy who went from being a Trump critic to one of his strongest Senate allies. Thiel’s backing was pivotal in Vance’s Senate campaign in Ohio, and their partnership is long-standing; Vance previously worked at Thiel’s investment firm, Mithril Capital. Together, they’ve helped reorient the GOP’s messaging to embrace a techno-libertarian philosophy that blends Trump’s populism with a deep skepticism of government overreach, emphasizing the power of technology and the dangers of bureaucratic stagnation. Thiel’s influence marked a turning point, signaling that Silicon Valley was no longer an exclusively liberal stronghold.”
“Adding to this lineup is Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and another rising star of the GOP who brings Silicon Valley’s anti-regulatory fervor to the party. Like Thiel, Ramaswamy is a staunch critic of “woke” culture and has actively spoken against what he sees as radical leftist propaganda. His entry has solidified the GOP’s embrace of a new brand of conservatism that champions free markets, regulatory rollbacks, and a cultural counter-movement against wokeism, DEI and gender ideology”
“With Elon Musk throwing his full weight behind Trump and the GOP a couple of months ago, the party has definitively set out on a new course. Musk’s support was pivotal in getting Trump re-elected to the White House. The worlds richest man has large ambitions to reform the Federal Government and will most likely lead a ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ to slash spending and cut government workforce”
“The coalition of Trump, Thiel, Vance, Ramaswamy and Musk marks a seismic ideological shift. Today’s Republican Party is infused with a techno-libertarian ethos that prizes individual freedom, technological progress, and a skepticism of entrenched institutions. They share a strong aversion to “woke” culture, which they view as a restrictive ideology that hinders free expression and innovation. This shift represents a dramatic departure from the GOP of previous generations, which was rooted in social conservatism and business pragmatism. Instead, the new GOP is open to bold, untested ideas, inspired by Silicon Valley’s most disruptive thinkers”
The connections of Peter Thiel and Musk signify the hold of the silicon valley over Trump Administration and its deep state connections with the CIA, Pentagon and NASA without support of which neither Thiel’s Palantir nor Musk’s endeavors would not have succeeded. The whole agenda of silicon valley czars who are in effect running the transition team on Trump cabinet appointees is to shape the American democracy in a Techno-Libertarian utopia which fuses techno-liberationism of the silicon valley along with Trump’s populism. The is a challenge to long-standing accepted political culture in Washington DC and seeks adopt a radical new approach to governance which advocates for technological advances, trimming bureaucracy, and disrupt traditional power structures of American politics.
Impact of Trump 2.0 on India & the World:
It is in this context one must understand what does Trump 2.0 brings to table on America’s economic issues which will have a significant impact on India and the world at large. President elect Donald Trump has promised a wide range of economic measures to boost the American economy the foremost of it being trimming the bureaucracy with a unit called DOGE (Department of Governmental Efficiency) which will aim to reduce expenditure of the US Government at about 2 trillion dollars. The said department is to be headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. One of the prominent promises of Trump campaign was to streamline bureaucracy which does not align with new GOP agenda, implement digital solutions to cut bureaucratic slag like a UID, Digital Transfers of Government grants and subsidies which bypass the typical bureaucratic slippages and make economies of scale for American government. We have seen a similar model being implemented in India by Aadhaar (UiD) biometric database interlinking with bank accounts, PAN Card and mobile interface i.e. JAM for smooth transfer of government benefits.
However Trump 2.0 faces a daunting task ahead given the fact that President Trump has promised to cut corporate tax rates as promised and give tax relief to middle class. These measures will boost corporate profits estimated by 4% and could also boost the consumer spending leading increase in demand. This increase in demand coupled with the fact that Federal Reserve is cutting rates injecting more liquidity in the market would further accelerate the inflation that would mean that FED would either have to stop cutting rates or revert back to quantitative tightening which would mean going back to square one.
Second issue Trump administration would have to grapple with is inflation, while gasoline and oil price can be contained by pumping local oil & gas the food inflation, grocery, the mortgages, home and student loans would continue to grapple the American middle class. Thirdly, Trump Administration has promised to rebuilt America’s infrastructure by about 1 Trillion $ spending but the tax cuts as promised would lead to revenue deficit and that would mean that the American government would have to look towards binging on more debt, deficit financing to finance this. It must be noted here that a significant % of American GDP goes into servicing that trillion dollars of debt that could overheating the American economy by the time President Trump leaves office in 2029.
While this may sound as an American concern but in an interconnected world the decisions that Trump 2.0 takes will have a significant impact on the global economics & trade. Donald Trump as i call him the “Tariff King” has wowed to impose 10-20% tariffs across the globe and nearly 60% tariffs on Chinese products. In Trump 1.0 between 2017-2021, President Trump had initiated a trade war with China imposing tariffs of upto 30% on Chinese goods which saw a similar Chinese retaliation and even an adversarial response from Europe. He even threatened tariffs on India. Imposition of tariffs have various affects firstly it increases the price of goods for American consumers, secondly retaliatory tariffs induced protectionism disrupts global trade adding more inflationary pressure. The Trump team from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State to Robert Lightizer as Trade Secretary are known China hawks.
The Chinese very well anticipating the re-election of Donald Trump 2.0 and the likelihood of trump tariffs, boosted its sagging economy with trillions of yuan worth economic stimulus and in future might even devalue Yuan to make Chinese imports cheaper to United States. These actions could invite the wrath of American president who after his inauguration in January 2025 could impose tariffs on China, German Automotive industry alike seeding disruption and chaos in global economy. Chinese could then very well take America to WTO for this unilateralism and Trump in response could threaten to pull out of WTO. The coming of Trump 2.0 is considered one of the probable reasons why China sought disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh returning back to the old status quo pre April 2020. This breakthrough between two neighbors underscores the Chinese concern of not loosing access to the Indian market for its sagging economy with uncertainty of Trump tariffs looming large on the horizon.
Knowing President Trump’s ace negotiating skills it is possible that he could impose some tariffs on China and then negotiate from a position of strength asking Chinese companies to invest and setup factories in non critical sectors in USA generating employment something which he could market or sell to his base at home that look i am bringing the jobs back. The tariff war between USA & China brings a bigger opportunity for India where it could leverage good Indo-pacific ties with China hawks in Trump administration while seeking Chinese investments and trade parity opening some access and normalization with China in return.
Trump administration has already signaled that if would not back renewable energy projects and would likely dilute requirements of IRA (Inflation Reduction Act, 2022) like environmental clearances, cutting federal aid & grants, promoting Made in USA solar module manufacturing while imposing tariffs on Chinese sourced solar panels and modules. This would create an opportunity for Indian companies to step up however given the import of raw materials from China for solar modules, Chinese dumping of its over capacity in Indian markets via FTA routes of South East Asian countries could bring a second ring effect on Indian solar module manufacturers. Their toplines, margins and profitability could be severely impacted despite anti-dumping duties imposed on China. A trade war and tariffs war when initiated can have multiple ring effects on supply chains across the world. Similar could be the scenario in CDMO Pharma giving an opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical sector as the US Congress could pass Biosecure Act to cut dependence of contract manufacturing by American companies of pharmaceutical products in China.
The Trump 2.0 thus brings opportunities as well as challenges for India. The Trump administration is expected to go soft on Russia aiming to secure a status quo or a ceasefire on the frontlines in Ukraine and that would benefit India as India could then engage with Russia on its military upgrades, oil and gas diplomacy. However one should expect that when USA under Trump 2.0 decides to pump more oil and gas it would ask India to lessen dependence on Russian oil and import more American oil in a bid to offset some part of its trade deficit with India. India is indeed in a sweet spot geo-politically with American Hindus like Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy forming core of Trump Administration. Tulsi Gabbard has been appointed by President elect Trump as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) who is the head and overseas all intelligence agencies in USA including those wings of Department of Justice, FBI, CIA, US Airforce, Army, Navy, Secret Service and even the national guard.
While American Hindus like Tulsi Gabbard heading US intelligence department will offer some solace to India, we should be cautious about Deep State agenda be it Bangladesh coup, St Martin base in Bay of Bengal, a Christian State in North East India which has been a long standing dream of Anglo-American establishment. The hardcore evangelical base of Trump and the Republican party might prove to be irritant in the ties between two sides. One should be realistic that America’s moves of coups in Pakistan and later in Bangladesh are primarily aimed at countering China and keeping a check on India in Bay of Bengal. Trump administration is unlikely to get along with Mohammad Yunus of Bangladesh who has been associated with Clinton Foundation in past thus it could be very much be possible that Bangladeshi military moves in swiftly holding fresh elections soon giving the power back to political leadership of BNP with Sheikh Hasina in Exile in New Delhi. This would provide an opportunity for India to claw back in Bangladesh hoping for an early restoration of democracy and revival of Awami league in the near future.
It must be borne in mind while American and Indian interest converge geo politically on various issues be it Quad, Freedom of Navigation of Seas, Defence and Space partnership, tackling China, critical rare earth supply lines. But there will be issues of divergence as well where Indian interests could clash with American interests like military deals with Russia to the oil and port deal with Iran. The Trump administration is expected to be tough on Iran in sync with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu who has wowed to finish Iranian proxies in the middle east from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia Militias in Syria/Iraq. The Israeli’s have already dealt a severe blow to Iranian paramilitary groups in the region and President Trump is expected to follow suit by ramping up huge oil & trade sanctions on Iran in a bid to curtail its nuclear program. That could provide some concern to India as it operates Chabhar Port in Iran and unlike the Democrats, the Trump administration may not give a pass allowing it and might threaten secondary sanctions.
As we have read above the Trump 2.0 will bring significant geo-political and geo-economic risks for India and the world. These could range from Trade Wars to Tech Wars impacting semi-conductor supply lines, tariffs on German and European industry, renegotiation of Trade Pacts, withdrawal from Renewable energy commitments and Paris accord, sanctioning of Iran, deep state meddling in India and South Asia using actors like Pannu and Nikhil Gupta to extract leverage over military and defence deals with India. Trump 2.0 is all set to disrupt not only American politics but even the global order and with silicon valley czars taking a firm position in the Trump presidency the American civil society and the world can anticipate drastic changes in the next four years.
However it goes without saying that history is testament to the fact then whenever American first has prevailed along with Trade wars it has always disrupted global economy and trade leading to eventual global conflict. I would end with saying hold on to you seats tightly as the roller coaster ride with the ‘“Tariff King” as ‘Manchurian Candidate’ in power is all set to begin. Trump 2.0 will further fasten the process of Multi-polarity within Bi-polarity, igniting the cold war 2.0 in Indo-Pacific and unwinding of the current global order. May god bless America and the world for what is to come.
Notes:
The Great Reset (2022) - Navroop Singh
American Civil War: The battle between American Nationalists and the British Free Trade Radicals - Navroop Singh
American Civil War: The Chronology of Conflicts & Deceit - Navroop Singh
Peter Thiel: The Billionaire Buying the End of Democracy - https://perfectunion.us/peter-thiel-the-billionaire-buying-the-end-of-democracy/
Peter Thiel at Libertopia 2010 - You Tube Video
The new Republican Party - Jelmer Ossterloo - Substack 11th November 2024
TRUMP-VANCE: The Rise of Conservative Right in USA & its impact on the Global Order - Substack - Navroop Singh