Dollar Vs Dharma: The Battle for Global Order

In a rapidly transforming global order, the United States finds itself at a crossroads. Once the unchallenged hegemon dictating the terms of global finance, trade, and war, it is now grappling with a world where the pillars of its supremacy especially the U.S. dollar are under sustained assault. The Bretton Woods framework, propped up by the Petro-Dollar arrangement of the 1970s, was the bedrock of this supremacy. But in 2025, the winds of history have shifted. Facing internal economic implosion, foreign resistance to U.S. Treasury bonds, and growing multipolar assertions from the East, Washington is scrambling to secure a new version of its old bargain: a “Petro-Dollar 2.0.” This time, however, the terms are murkier, the players more volatile, and the compromises deeper. At the centre of this recalibration lies a tectonic shift i.e. America’s strategic pivot away from unconditional support to Israel and its courtship of Gulf monarchies, Muslim Brotherhood sponsors, and Turkey. The objective is clear secure a lifeline for the dollar and delay the coming collapse.

The first signs of this shift emerged during Donald Trump’s second term, as economic pressure mounted domestically. With the Federal Reserve unwilling to cut interest rates amid persistent inflation fear due to tariffs, and with over $7 trillion in U.S. debt coming due for renewal at higher yields, the old tricks of easy liquidity and deficit financing is beginning to backfire. Foreign holders of U.S. debt chief among them Japan, China were either scaling back their purchases or redirecting trade surpluses into alternative stores of value like gold, energy infrastructure, or local currency trade arrangements. The once unshakable demand for the U.S. Treasury had begun to crack, and with it, the very engine of America’s economic dominance. To stabilize this decline, Trump’s team identified the core existential necessity that they need to revive the Petro-Dollar system, but on new terms that account for a reshaped Middle East, an increasingly multipolar Asia, and a restive Global South.

This realization prompted an extraordinary policy shift. Long-standing assumptions like Israel’s unassailable position as America’s closest ally or Iran’s irredeemable status as a pariah is beginning to erode. Strategic pragmatism is taking precedence over ideological loyalties. DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s veto against Israel’s demand to bomb Iranian nuclear installations marked a historic moment of divergence. Gabbard, backed by a faction within the intelligence and defence community, concluded that a direct war with Iran especially one that could inflame the Persian Gulf would collapse the already fragile energy-dollar axis. The U.S. needed regional stability more than it needed to indulge Israeli hawks. Trump, ever the transactional leader, aligned with this view, pursuing backchannel diplomacy even as tensions simmered between Tehran and Tel Aviv.

The sticking points in Iran Nuclear Deal is not just Nuclear enrichment but it is about America seeking Iran to detangle itself with China Deal for sanctions relief. China & Russia have assured full Tehran support. Russia has just signed mutual defence & security pact with Tehran in April 2025. The Mullah’s regime backed by IRGC had previously walked out of similar pact with Moscow in 1980. This time due to Netanyahu goading Trump into assassination of General Soleimani’s Assassination in 2021, IRGC has gone ahead defying the neutral stand signing 25 year partnership with China in July 2021. America’s ultimate aim is to China’s supply lines to Persian Gulf from Iranian Coast to Gwadar in Pakistan to China Myanmar Economic Corridor.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia emerged as the linchpin of the new bargain. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, emboldened by his Vision 2030 ambitions and increasingly diversified economy, laid down his terms. The Kingdom would continue pricing oil in dollars and allow continued Western military and economic partnerships but only if the U.S. accepted a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict and refrained from opposing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions. To this, Trump has surprisingly agreed. In a dramatic reversal, Washington is offering Riyadh assistance in developing nuclear energy infrastructure without demanding explicit normalization with Israel. It was a message to Netanyahu that Israel would no longer dictate America’s broader regional calculus. The era of carte blanche was over.

In parallel, Trump also reached out to the traditional patrons of the Muslim Brotherhood i.e. Turkey and Qatar. Once adversaries in America’s so-called “War on Terror,” these nations are now being courted as essential allies in the new Petro-Dollar realignment. Turkey, under President Erdoğan, brings not just its geographic clout as NATO’s eastern flank but also its ideological influence across the Sunni world. Qatar, with its vast natural gas reserves and media empire (notably Al Jazeera), is a powerful player capable of shaping narratives and energy flows alike. By softening its stance on the Muslim Brotherhood and offering investment and trade incentives, the U.S. is signalling that it is willing to recalibrate even its post-9/11 doctrines to buy time for its currency.

President Trump’s meeting with Syrian president Ahmad Al Sharaa (linked earlier to ISIS & Al Qaeda), in Riyadh at the insistence of Turkey & Saudis and lifting of sanctions speaks volumes about Washington’s compulsions. America has agreed to give Turkey its NATO ally olive branches in form of F-35s along with CATSAA dilutions over Russia S-400 systems, AMRAAM missiles. Donald Trump is now more than willing to embrace the ties to Muslim Brotherhood ideology whose main streamlining was started by President Obama through Arab Spring in PSD-11 in the year 2010-11.

The Trump Administration further gone on courting General Asim Munir of Pakistan with crypto deal just four days after Pahalgam attack, this deal came at the back Trump Junior’s business partners investing in Pakistan, Turkey and Bangladesh in early 2025. It is also noteworthy that US approved 1.02 billion $ IMF loan to Pakistan on 9^th May 2025 along with an earlier 400 million $ military aid for F-16s given in February 2025.

This charm offensive towards the Muslim world has already borne strategic fruit. Saudi Arabia has leaned toward de-escalation with Iran, talks with the Houthis have stabilized Yemen’s oil routes, and Gulf monarchies are gradually agreeing to reinvest more of their dollar surpluses into U.S. financial instruments. In return, Washington has slowed its criticisms of human rights abuses, refrained from interfering in GCC internal politics, and offered generous arms deals. What is emerging is a transactional but fragile Petro-Dollar 2.0 less about shared values and more about mutual survival.

But this realignment has costs. Israel, long the pivot of American strategy in the Middle East, is being strategically restrained. Netanyahu’s hardline coalition is facing backlash not only from within Israel but also from Washington, London, Ottawa, and Paris. The recent military escalation in Gaza saw the U.S. blocking Israeli requests while simultaneously pushing a ceasefire framework negotiated by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy. This new framework includes conditional aid to Gaza, release of hostages by Hamas, and a phased roadmap toward political dialogue all deeply uncomfortable for Israeli hardliners. The U.S. is making it clear that its alliance with Israel is no longer unconditional.

The wider West especially the Anglo-American establishment comprising the U.S. and the UK is showing similar signs of recalibration. While supporting Israel rhetorically, both Washington and London are being drawn into a new balancing act. On one side are their traditional allies like Israel and Egypt; on the other are new power brokers like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Turkey. The West needs these states not only for energy cooperation but also for global financial liquidity. As Asian central banks cut their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, the dollar's survival now depends on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds recycling oil profits back into U.S. assets. It is, in effect, a modern version of the “petro-recycling” that saved the dollar after Nixon decoupled it from gold.

What makes this dynamic more volatile is the simultaneous pushback from Asia. Japan is quietly rearming itself and not willing to be Plazae’d again. Japan is seeking to use and sell US Treasuries as a tool to extract concessions from US not willing to back down in a game of brinkmanship on trade. South Korea is investing in technological self-sufficiency. India is refusing to sign on to U.S.-dictated trade regimes specially on non-trade barriers protecting its sovereignty in critical verticals like Agriculture, Pharma Patents, Data localisation & E-Commerce rules. And China, with its digital yuan and alternative financial architectures, is offering a parallel ecosystem of trade and payments to much of the Global South. These civilizational powers deeply rooted in cultural identity, historical memory, and long-term strategic thinking are refusing to play by old rules. The West’s liberal international order, once sold as the end of history, is now being resisted by powers who remember their own civilizational zeniths and are determined to reclaim them.

Ironically, the U.S. and China though rivals are both converging in one area i.e. neither wants India to fully rise. For America, a powerful India that demands tech parity and trade sovereignty in form of another China is not suitable. For China, an assertive India that disrupts its plans for continental dominance through the Belt and Road is clear strategic red line. Thus, even as the U.S. sells India defence equipment and courts its strategic partnership, it also supports Pakistan economically and diplomatically especially through IMF bailouts and controlled destabilization in South Asia. In this game of double deals, no country is truly trusted, only tolerated. Given the G2 consensus of containing India’s rise, India must maintain sovereignty over its critical verticals like Defence, Aerospace, Pharma Patents, Bio-Technology, Agriculture & Food Security, Data localisation in any trade discussions with USA, Europe or China. Surrendering on anyone of them for corporate interests will be a cardinal blunder.

There is where Russia and Turkey remain the wild cards. Russia, despite its economic woes and sanctions, retains vast influence across Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and West Asia. It is reasserting its Orthodox civilizational roots, leveraging energy, and playing both sides in every conflict. Russia though has lost leverage in Syria but it significantly gained in Ukraine as America is seeking to walk away from endless war in Ukraine. Kremlin is seeking recognition of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson along with Crimea as Russian territory along with neutrality commitment and no NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Russia has also signed up with no-limits strategic partnership with China whereby China has become has its largest trading partner along with India.

The strategic realism of Donald Trump is dictated by transactionalism and Monroe doctrine where Europe is made to fend for itself. The Trumpian GOP is seeking a reset with Russia following the Kissinger doctrine of making peace with Russia and trying to isolate China. Trump’s effort to seek a ceasefire in Ukraine has turned cropper so far, as the Europeans fearing an expansive Russia are backing Zelensky in Ukraine. This has led to Europeans re-arming themselves and even seeking nuclear power which means less dependence on American & Russian LNG/Gas. The French who have traditionally balked at American exceptionalism since Charles De Gaulle era are driving this effort of European strategic autonomy reducing dependence on American alliance. The Europeans are also resisting American trade bullying unwilling to relent on American tech giants.

Turkey, meanwhile, is acting as the heir of the Ottoman legacy, engaging in ideological outreach of Muslim Brotherhood, drone diplomacy, and regional balancing from Libya to Azerbaijan to Pakistan all the way to Bangladesh. Both powers i.e. Russia and Turkey seek to break the duopoly of the U.S. and China and reinsert themselves into the historical narrative of global leadership. On the other hand, there is an effort to contain India by America & China through their agent of Chaos in the region i.e. Pakistan. India recently in Operation Sindoor from 7^th to 10^th May 2025 hammered Pakistan by hitting its 11 Airbases including Nur Khan airbase, neutralising terror launchpads in Pakistani Punjab. It is reported that Indian Airforce has destroyed atleast 5-6 PAK airforce jets including 1 Mirage,1 Mirage 5, 1 JF-17, 1 F-16, 1 C-130, along with many other Chinese air defence systems.

This has prompted activation of the Eastern Theatre along India’s borders. Muhammad Yunus of Bangladesh, the Nobel laureate role extends far beyond microfinance into the murky corridors of geopolitical engineering. His close ties with the Clinton Foundation and Western intelligence circles have made him a key enabler of U.S. strategic moves in Bangladesh, particularly the covert support for a proxy campaign against Myanmar's military junta via the Rakhine corridor. Simultaneously, Yunus is facilitating the reactivation of the Lalmonirhat Airbase, a dormant World War II-era site near the Siliguri Corridor, now allegedly being opened to Chinese military support, creating a serious threat to India's eastern flank.

In this emerging triangulation, Turkey and Pakistan are coordinating through the ideological vehicle of the Muslim Brotherhood, backing the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh to create regional destabilization in India’s east and north-east. With the U.S. and China both tactically converging to contain India's rise, America is using proxies and financial bait, and China embedding itself strategically at the Lalmonirhat base could become a forward node in a broader containment architecture. Thus, while Trump pursues Petro-Dollar 2.0 with Gulf monarchies and Brotherhood patrons, his administration’s quiet nod to Yunus and tactical silence on China’s involvement reflects a deeper consensus that India must be managed, not empowered. This Eastern axis of Bangladesh, China, Turkey, and Pakistan could become the linchpin of a dual-front containment strategy, linking economic, ideological, and kinetic tools to stall India’s emergence as a civilizational pole.

Ultimately, what we are witnessing is not just a geopolitical realignment but a civilizational reshuffle. The West is desperately trying to extend the life of the Petro-Dollar and the post-1945 financial order. To do so, it is willing to abandon allies, court adversaries, and rewrite decades of policy. The East led by civilizational powers like India, China, Japan, and to some extent Iran and Russia is demanding a seat at the table based not on ideological alignment but on historical entitlement and sovereign identity. Many countries like Vietnam, India and even European Union are offering Zero tariff deals to USA as zero tariff deals aren’t a big threat to manufacturing powers but removing the non-trade barriers can entail a big hit. The Americans to sustain its empire are looking for removal of non trade barriers which could not only dent and but also de-industrialise these manufacturing powers in the long run.

The success of America’s Petro-Dollar 2.0 strategy depends on whether the GCC and the Brotherhood sponsors will buy into a Western-led financial future. If they do, the dollar may get a few more decades of relevance. If they don’t, or if civilizational powers like India and China offer more attractive alternatives, then the decline will not just be economic it will be imperial. While the world is seeing a broader revival of civilizational powers like China, India, Japan, Turkey & Russia, it is the modern the day geo-politics that is driving these fragile alliances.

The West especially Anglo-American block is seeding chaos and conflict in Asia to dent the rise of manufacturing powers in Asia-pacific while re-calibrating their embrace of powers in the middle east to sustain their empire for few decades more. Amid all this shift comes the appointment of an American Pope Leo XIV (Cardinal Robert Prevost) whose prime aim at the Vatican would be reshore and re-kindle Catholicism and Christianity amid terminal decline of Western society with liberal values. The old-world order is collapsing under the weight of its contradictions. The new one is yet to be born. But in this interregnum, alliances will shift, narratives will clash, and history will reclaim its central role.

As America grapples with the decline of its financial hegemony and the crumbling credibility of its fiat empire, the rise of U.S.-backed stablecoins like UST represents Washington’s latest gambit to preserve the dollar’s supremacy in a fragmenting world. These digital tokens, pegged to the dollar and promoted under the guise of innovation, financial inclusion, and decentralisation, are in reality weapons in an economic war tools to entrench dollar dependency in a multipolar world that is increasingly rejecting Western dominance.

Through UST and similar instruments, the U.S. aims to digitise its monetary reach and reroute global trade through invisible rails of digital dollar liquidity. Yet behind this sleek financial veneer lies an aggressive agenda: to undercut Asia’s manufacturing giants China, Japan, Vietnam, India by destabilising their trade balances, pressuring their currencies, and shifting supply chains back to American soil under the banner of “re-industrialisation.”

But the East is awakening. No longer driven solely by GDP and trade surpluses, civilisational states like Bharat, China, and Japan are reviving ancient dharmic and Taoist principles of balance, duty, and sovereign order. In this unfolding battle, the dollar is not merely a currency it is a symbol of adharma: limitless debt, consumerism, and extraction. The stablecoin is but its avatar in digital form. The resistance from the East is not only economic it is spiritual and philosophical. The struggle is no longer for dominance but for dharma: to restore harmony against an empire prolonging decay through code.

Back in 2016, in our book The New Global Order, I had written that a China-Pakistan-Turkey axis would eventually converge, posing a long-term threat to India’s security and Asia’s stability. That warning has come true. What I had also predicted in my book The Great Reset in 2022, was evolving Cold War 2.0 or Bi-polarity between US & China and restructuring of the global supply chains. We had predicted that in aftermath of Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 the world would get divided into two poles and ultimately countries like India, Russia, UAE and the Gulf Arab states would play critical role in making it a multi-polar global order by trading with both the blocs of USA as well as China. As more chaos is seeded from Pakistan to Myanmar, from Iran to Bangladesh the more it becomes clear that the American empire, running on a hollowed-out dollar system, is buying time through conflict.

Western powers like America are using financial, digital, and military tools to suppress this multipolarity. The question is will Asia recognize the game before it’s too late? The Asian Century is inevitable but not guaranteed. It must be fought for against imperial nostalgia from the West and ideological warfare from the hegemonic alliance rising in the East. India, standing at the crossroads of both, must lead this resistance. A self-reliant, resilient, and strategically autonomous India is the antidote to chaos.

धर्मो रक्षति रक्षितः ! This timeless line encapsulates India’s civilizational duty by upholding dharma (righteousness, order, sovereignty), one ensures both personal and national survival even amidst geopolitical chaos. It serves as a profound reminder that in defending its autonomy and multipolar future, India is not just securing borders or trade, but safeguarding an eternal principle of righteousness.

As the Bhagavad Gita declares:
“स्वधर्मे निधनं श्रेयः परधर्मो भयावहः”
(Swadharme nidhanam shreyah, paradharmo bhayavahah)
“Better to die following one’s own Dharma than to live by another’s.”

India’s resurgence is not a mimicry of the West but a flowering of its ancient self. India’s Rashtra Dharma is to be both anchor and compass in a chaotic world. Not as an empire, but as a civilizational force asserting harmony where others impose order, offering wisdom where others brandish power. India is indeed the land of the Buddha symbol of peace and compassion it is equally the land of Guru Gobind Singh, the embodiment of righteous resistance. Citing the Guru's stirring words, "When all other means fail, it is righteous to draw the sword”. It is about rekindling the warrior spirit of India's military ethos, asserting that self-defense is not just a strategic necessity but a Dharmic imperative. It is the blending of spiritual legacy with modern deterrence, conveying that India seeks peace, but will not hesitate to defend its sovereignty with resolve forged in centuries of cultural strength.

China reclaims tribute-based centrality. Japan embodies silent resilience and aesthetic modernity. Turkey reanimates its caliphate dreams through Islamic-nationalist synthesis. Russia resurrects Tsarist-Orthodox identity in defiance of Western liberalism. And India leads through Dharma a moral compass guiding global conduct, not by coercion but by example. This civilizational resurgence is not without danger. It can lead to exclusion, conflict, and revivalist arrogance. But it also offers an opportunity to reimagine global order not through domination, but through dharma-yuddha, the righteous contest of ideas, trade, and cooperation. The future will not be led by those who forget, but by those who remember wisely. As civilizations rise again, it is not the strongest, but the most rooted that shall endure.