Impact of the Rise of Imperial Turkey in the region & beyond – Part 2

The desolation wrought on Hezbollah by Israel, and the humiliation inflicted on Iran, has not only left the Iranian axis exposed to Israeli power and further withering. It has altered the strategic tectonics of the Middle East. The story is not just Iran anymore. The region is showing the first signs of tremendous geopolitical change. And the plates are beginning to move.

First things first. The removal of the religious-totalitarian tyranny of the Iranian regime remains the greatest strategic imperative in the region for the United States and its allies, foremost among whom stands Israel. The Iranian regime, in its last days, is lurching toward a nuclear breakout to save itself.

However, as Iran’s regime descends into the graveyard of history, it is important not to neglect the emergence of other, new threats. Neither the United States nor our allies in the region have any longer the luxury of a slow containment and delaying strategy in Iran. Instead, a rapid move toward decisive victory in the twilight struggle with the Ayatollahs is required.

The retreat of the Syrian Assad regime from Aleppo in the face of Turkish-backed, partly Islamist rebels made from remnants of ISIS is an early skirmish in this new strategic reality.

Aleppo is falling to the Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham, or HTS — a descendant of the Nusra force led by Abu Muhammed al-Julani, himself a graduate of the al-Qaeda system and cobbled together of ISIS elements. Behind this force is the power of nearby Turkey.

Turkey re-oriented Islamist militias oriented toward Ankara. The rise of a Muslim-Brotherhood dominated Turkey, rehabilitating and tapping ISIS residue to ride Iran’s decline/demise to Ankara’s strategic advantage, will plague American and Israeli interests going forward.

Turkey maintained a powerful presence in the organization and had some senior Hamas leaders likely more loyal to Turkey than to Iran. In many ways, Hamas reflected the schizophrenia of its patron, Qatar, which served a critical ally to both Iran and Turkey in the last two decades.

In the past two decades, however, Iran proved more ascendent strategically in the region than Turkey. In fits and starts, Ankara had tried quietly to compete with Iran in the last two decades, but more often than not it was left only to nibble at the scraps left by Iran along the edges, whether in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon.

Iran had become the region’s new Nasser, and its minions accordingly flourished as did its factions in Palestinian and Islamist politics. However, suddenly the ground shifted. Israel has, since summer 2024, starting with Operation Grim Beeper and the demolition of Hezbollah, triggered an earthquake in the normally slow pace of regional strategic change. If Israel presses onward with priority, as it should, to devastate and destabilize the Iranian regime, and if the Iranian axis meets its demise.

The emergence of the Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood bloc, which includes Turkey’s slow drift to a dangerous position, as a strategic problem accelerated under President Obama. Turkish leader Tayyip Erdogan always was an Islamist politician. With Iran’s defeat, Syria will begin unraveling. Russians will try to protect essential interests there — Assad’s Alawite regime and the Christian communities, especially the Greek Orthodox.

Russia considers itself to some extent the “Third Rome” — Rome and Constantinople being the first two. The remnant Christian communities — especially the Greek Orthodox since the Maronites are Catholic and orient more to France — are envisioned as Moscow’s charge. A Russo-Turkish confrontation might threaten Israel and America but it could also present opportunities. Russia may consider turning to Israel as a key offset to Turkish power once Iran is removed from the picture. Moreover, China is likely to realign with Turkey and drop Iran when it realizes the Ayatollah regime is falling.

China has hedged for the past few years, having signed a strategic agreement with Iran in 2021, but it has just as aggressively sought to tighten its relations with Turkey. China has ties to Pakistan through the Hindu Kush range and sees India as one of its premier enemies. Turkey as well has close strategic relations with Pakistan, uses that relationship to compete with India in Afghanistan, and has attempted in the last half decade to destabilize India both through using Pakistani help to rile up unrest in the Jammu and Kashmir, but also among India’s 200 million Muslims. As Iran falters, we see China shifting more toward Turkey. !

Turkey is the biggest winner in Syria & Iran the biggest looser. Erdogan had been telling Assad to take back millions of Syrian refugees but he refused the deal. Erdogan’s militias Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) lead by Joulani (Ex Al Qaeda in Syria/Nusra+ISIS) & Syrian National Army (SNA backed by Turkey) then launched the offensive taking Aleppo, Hama & Idilb province taking advantage of transition in Washington DC, a degraded Hezbollah and occupied Russia.

Turkish Militias i.e. SNA dont get along the Kurds i.e. SDF (YPG/J) being core of it in the American enclave of NE Syria. Though Turkey says motive is to push back refugees in Syria, the real motive is to re-kindle Erdogan’s Ottoman dreams and capturing Kurdish enclaves in Syria & Iraq to scuttle PKK/YPG/SDF. Suffice to say Turkish state subscribes to Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology undercutting Russian interests in Syria, something which even GCC would be carefully watching as Iranian Shia Crescent fades away thanks to Bibi & Israel operations against Hezbollah & Shia Militias.

Russian interests are big time compromised as Assad regime is too fragile now as Hezbollah support significantly lesser than it was under General Solemani of IRGC. Russia interests in its middle east enclave of Alwaites & its naval base in Latakia is critical to its operations in Africa. It will be interesting to see if Putin engages Erdogan, or will he use his contacts of the Russian Mob & Bibi as a counter balance to Turkey’s growing influence in the region. While the Iranian influence is down the Mullah regime might try & go Nuclear to protect its existence.

The fading away of Shia Crescent and rise of Turkey as Muslim Brotherhood as base brings the new threat of salafi terror threat back on table to Gulf Arab monarchies. China on the other hand would engage Turkey to keep Uighur and Central Asian jihadists away from the mainland. Its via media would be Pakistan this time. So we see rise of China, Pakistan & Turkey (CPT) Axis of Islamist Communist Alliance something we had predicted in 2015-16 in our book #TheNewGlobal (2016) that an Imperial Turkey would rise that would push ISIS militants who slipped into Afghanistan to regroup as (ISKP or Islamic State in Khorasan Province) .

The rise of ISKP & CPT Axis brings a totally new dynamic to Indian Sub-Continent as ISKP would be used to counter balance India’s dalliance with Taliban in Afghanistan. Bangladesh’s Jamat will be used by Pakistan as new base to funnel in ISKP & Al Qaeda cells into India as a new terror threat emerges. India’s strategic ties with Russia, Israel and GCC countries will become critical to counter the rising #CPTAxis & the jihadist threat emanating from an Imperial Turkey.

American would be all smiling seeing the chaos in Syria, as a rising Turkish imperialism of Muslim Brotherhood with Salafi terror groups will un-nerve not only the Iranians but also Saudi & Emirati Sheikhs keeping the whole region on the edge. USA/China could also use the Bangladesh terror threat (ISKP & Al Qaeda) & Myanmar’s Narco Terror to keep India on edge in North East while screwing the Iranian Oil/Chabhar port as Trump Admnst is expected to go hard on Iranian Oil & Trade.

That puts Israel in pivotal position in the Middle East which Russia will try to engage for its go to between America & Turkey. Israel & America would want Iranian shia crescent to be degraded but not eliminated as they keep American hegemony alive & security cover relevant making sure GCC countries dont sit in the lap of Russia & China. The biggest beneficiaries of events in Syria are Turkey, America & Israel; the biggest looser are Syria, Russia, Iran. China would re-calibrate itself while India will have to be watchful for threat of ISKP & Al Qaeda in subcontinent as CPT Axis rises specially through Bangladesh territory as new launch pad of terror in the East/NE India. !