Monroe Doctrine: American Exceptionalism upending the Global Order

The Monroe Doctrine was originally drafted as a United States policy which opposed European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere. The doctrine asserted that the New World and the Old World were to remain distinctly separate spheres of influence. It held that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers was a potentially hostile act against the United States. The doctrine was central to American foreign policy for much of the 19th and early 20th century. President James Monroe first articulated the doctrine on December 2, 1823, during his seventh annual State of the Union Address to Congress (though it would not be named after him until 1850).

As late as October 21, 1823 Jefferson had written to President Monroe "our first and fundamental maxim should be never to entangle ourselves in the broils of Europe. Our second, never to suffer Europe to intermeddle with cis-atlantic affairs. America, north and south, has a set of interests distinct from those of Europe and peculiarly her own. She should therefore have a system of her own, separate and apart from that of Europe." Jefferson's views coincided with those of practically all the prominent Americans.

Although that sentiment of "America for the Americans" was gradually but surely assuming a concrete form, it was partially due to British suggestion that it developed so suddenly under President Monroe into that important, vital doctrine known by his name. For with the powerful support of England, it became an insurmountable barrier to any future European colonization of America; and in the course of time even restricting England in her attempts at seizing disputed Venezuelan territory without arbitration.

The opinion is thoroughly grounded in the American mind that not only for the protection of its own country but also for the peace and safety of Central and South America it is absolutely necessary that foreign political influence be excluded. That if these countries were open to European colonization they would immediately become bones of contention, followed by ceaseless foreign wars. That not only should they be free from European influence but that it is essential to the welfare of the United States that it should be surrounded by republican governments so far as possible

In turn, the United States would recognize and not interfere with existing European colonies nor meddle in the internal affairs of European countries. By the end of the 19th century, Monroe's Doctrine was seen as a defining moment in the foreign policy of the United States and one of its longest-standing tenets. The intent and effect of the doctrine persisted for over a century, with only small variations, and would be invoked by many American statesmen and several American presidents, including Ulysses S. Grant, Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan.

Despite the United States beginning as an isolationist country, the foundation of the Monroe Doctrine was already laid during George Washington's presidency. As early as 1783, then, the United States adopted the policy of isolation and announced its intention to keep out of Europe. The supplementary principle of the Monroe Doctrine, that Europe must keep out of America, was still over the horizon and also was extended to the Latin American colonies by the Monroe Doctrine

The U.S. government feared the victorious European powers that emerged from the Congress of Vienna (1814–1815) would revive monarchical government. France had already agreed to restore the Spanish monarchy in exchange for Cuba. As the revolutionary Napoleonic Wars (1803–1815) ended, Prussia, Austria, and Russia formed the Holy Alliance to defend monarchism. In particular, the Holy Alliance authorized military incursions to re-establish Bourbon rule over Spain and its colonies, which were establishing their independence.

On the other hand Great Britain shared the general objective of the Monroe Doctrine, and even wanted to declare a joint statement to keep other European powers from further colonizing the New World i.e. the America’s. The British feared their trade with the New World would be harmed if the other European powers further colonized it. In fact, for many years after the doctrine took effect, Britain, through the Royal Navy, was the sole nation enforcing it with the U.S. lacking sufficient naval capability for enforcing it. The U.S. resisted a joint statement because of the recent memory of the War of 1812; however, the immediate provocation was the Russian Ukase of 1821 asserting rights to the Pacific Northwest and forbidding non-Russian ships from approaching the coast

International response to Monroe Doctrine

At that time the U.S. lacked both a credible navy and army at the time, the doctrine was largely disregarded internationally. Prince Metternich of Austria was angered by the statement, and wrote privately that the doctrine was a new act of revolt by the U.S. that would grant new strength to the apostles of sedition and reanimate the courage of every conspirator. The doctrine, however, met with tacit British approval. They enforced it tactically as part of the wider Pax Britannica, which included enforcement of the neutrality of the seas. This was in line with the developing British policy of laissez-faire free trade against mercantilism. Fast growing British industry sought markets for its manufactured goods, and, if the newly independent Latin American states became Spanish colonies again, British access to these markets would be cut off by Spanish mercantilist policy.

The reaction in Latin America to the Monroe Doctrine was generally favorable but on some occasions suspicious. John A. Crow, author of The Epic of Latin America, stated that Simón Bolívar himself, still in the midst of his last campaign against the Spaniards, Santander in Colombia, Rivadavia in Argentina, Victoria in Mexico leaders of the emancipation movement everywhere received Monroe's words with sincerest gratitude. Crow argues that the leaders of Latin America were realists. In 1842, U.S. President John Tyler applied the Monroe Doctrine to Hawaii and warned Britain not to interfere there. This began the process of annexing Hawaii to the U.S. On December 2, 1845, U.S. President James Polk announced that the principle of the Monroe Doctrine should be strictly enforced, reinterpreting it to argue that no European nation should interfere with the American western expansion i.e. "Manifest Destiny".

America’s single handed pursuit of American Exceptionalism following the Monroe Doctrine is quiet reminiscent of the concept of “Manifest Destiny” which originated in 19th Century. The term Manifest Destiny was to legitimize the expansion of the American Union all across the continent as a god ordained prophecy which is to be fulfilled. This was the extension of the Monroe Doctrine so coined in 1823 and defines the American foreign of expansion and exceptionalism in Western Hemisphere. It was in a speech in the House of Representatives on January 3, I846, opposing the resolution for the termination of the joint occupation of Oregon, Representative Robert C. Winthrop of Massachusetts coined the word “Manifest Destiny” stating as follows:

“There is one element in our title [to Oregon], however, which I confess that I have not named, and to which I may not have done entire justice. I mean that new revelation of right which has been designated as the right of our manifest destiny to spread over this whole continent. It has been openly avowed in a leading Administration journal that this, after all, is our best and strongest title-one so clear, so pre-eminent, and so indisputable, that if Great Britain had all our other titles in addition to her own, they would weigh nothing against it. The right of our manifest destiny! There is a right for a new chapter in the law of nations; or rather, in the special laws of our own country; for I suppose the right of a manifest destiny to spread will not be admitted to exist in any nation except the universal Yankee nation!”

American Civil War

By the midpoint of the nineteenth century the United States possessed a booming economy, but little military power. Still, it simply did not appear worthwhile for the Europeans to tangle with the Americans when there were easier pickings with the steady collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and possibilities in Africa, particularly in Asia. That situation changed with the outbreak of the ferocious American Civil War, which threatened to tear the United States apart. It certainly gave the Americans little opportunity to interfere with European machinations. In this case, the French bet heavily that the Confederates would win the Civil War.

After participating in a joint effort with the British and Spanish in the winter of 1861 to force the Mexicans to pay their debts, the French took advantage of the turbulent situation to attempt to overthrow the Mexican government. Napoleon, emperor of France, then offered the crown of Emperor of Mexico to Maximilian of Austria, who accepted it in 1864. But the Confederacy soon afterward expired, and the American government deployed its military power to the Rio Grande. The French, recognizing the strategic reality, then withdrew, leaving Maximilian to be shot by the authorities of the Mexican Republic.

The Second French Intervention in Mexico , also known as the Second Franco-Mexican War (1861–1867), was an invasion of the Second Federal Republic of Mexico, launched in late 1862 by the Second French Empire at the invitation of Mexican conservatives. It helped replace the republic with a monarchy, known as the Second Mexican Empire, ruled by the Mexican Emperor Maximilian I. Mexican monarchists came up with the initial plan to return Mexico to a monarchical form of government, as it had been pre-independence and at its inception as an independent country. They invited Napoleon to aid in their cause and help create the monarchy, which would, in his estimations, lead to a country more favorable to French interests, but which was not always the case.

In 1861, Dominican military commander and royalist politician Pedro Santana signed a pact with the Spanish Crown and reverted the Dominican nation to colonial status. Spain was wary at first, but with the U.S. occupied with its own civil war, Spain believed it had an opportunity to reassert control in Latin America. On March 18, 1861, the Spanish annexation of the Dominican Republic was announced. The American Civil War ended in 1865, and following the re assertion of the Monroe Doctrine by the United States government, this prompted the Spanish forces stationed within the Dominican Republic to retreat back to Cuba within that same year

The Venezuelan crisis of 1895 became one of the most momentous episodes in the history of Anglo-American relations in general and of Anglo-American rivalries in Latin America in particular. Venezuela sought to involve the U.S. in a territorial dispute with Britain over Guayana and hired former US ambassador William L. Scruggs to argue that British behaviour over the issue violated the Monroe Doctrine. President Grover Cleveland through his Secretary of State, Richard Olney, cited the Doctrine in 1895, threatening strong action against Great Britain.

The Spanish–American War was a period of armed conflict between Spain and the United States. Hostilities began in the aftermath of the internal explosion of USS Maine in Havana Harbor in Cuba, leading to United States intervention in the Cuban War of Independence. The war led to the United States emerging predominant in the Caribbean region, and resulted in U.S. acquisition of Spain's Pacific possessions. It led to United States involvement in the Philippine Revolution and later to the Philippine–American War. In 1898, the U.S. intervened in support of Cuba during its war for independence from Spain. The resulting Spanish–American War ended in a peace treaty requiring Spain to cede Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Guam to the U.S. in exchange for $20 million. Spain was additionally forced to recognize Cuban independence, though the island remained under U.S. occupation until 1902.

In 1933, under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the U.S. went along with this new reinterpretation, especially in terms of the Organization of American States. From the beginning, Great Britain shared the general objective of the Monroe Doctrine, and went farther to propose a joint statement to keep other European powers from further colonizing the New World. Post World War 2, the Monroe Doctrine was seriously applied in during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 where Nikita Khrushchev sought to deploy Soviet nuclear missiles into Cuba in America’s backyard sparked a confrontation where the two world super power nearly came to a nuclear conflict. The crisis was finally diffused when the Soviets decided to pull back the ballistic missile deployments in Cuba despite Fidel Castro’s insistence to stand up against America. The principle behind American reaction to Soviet Union deployment in its backyard was in essence ‘American Exceptionalism’ where USA would not tolerate any other power in Western Hemisphere i.e. North & South America.

Monroe Doctrine in Trump Era

The Monroe doctrine was originally intended to prevent European colonialism in Americas but President Roosevelt further extended this doctrine in 1904 and 1906 to Latin America which is considered by USA as its backyard. The American deep state, intelligence agencies and organizations like USAID, NED etc did not shy away from orchestrating coups in Latin America, funding armed guerilla movements in Nicaragua and in some cases working with drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia. We have written about this in our book “The New Global Order” (2016). The American region of the Western Hemisphere essentially became a backyard for American state department and its shenanigans. The same strategy has been reiterated by President Trump on his return to White House for a second term in January 2025.

President Trump ever since he was elected has lambasted Panama for unfairly charging American ships and vessels while accusing it of allowing Chinese control of ports and managing the canal. President Trump went on to rue the fact that Panama Canal which connects Atlantic with Pacific built with US money and labour in 1914 was handed over to Panama in 1977 by the carter administration for nothing in return. The treaty of 1977 gave America the right to use its military to intervene in case the Canal is taken over in hostile act and Panama relinquishes its neutrality. Citing this unfair treaty President Trump threatened use of military to take the canal back. But it must be noted that the carter administration gave the control back after a lot of dispute and bad blood between Panama and USA. In 1964, a riot between U.S. residents and Panamanians, sparked over the right to fly the Panamanian flag in the Canal Zone, led to a brief interruption of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The other grouse of President Trump with Panama is China’s growing influence in Latin America and its ties with Panama. We have extensively written about China’s growing influence in Latin America in our book “The New Global Order” (2016) explaining in detail how China has used BRI projects and other trade deals to expand its influence in America’s backyard. This would naturally set alarm bells ringing in Washington DC when the Chinese tried to influence Panama and make it cut ties with Taiwan in 2017, recognizing People’s Republic of China. Further Hutchison Whampoa, a Hong Kong based Chinese company won the lease to operate container facilities at the ports of Cristobal and Balboa in 1997. The said lease was further extended for 25 years by Panama in 2021. President Trump’s threat’s on Panama worked as it agreed to not only lower tariffs on American cargo but also rescinding the agreements with Chinese company managing the ports terminal on the canal territory.

What happened in Panama was a classic example of United States pursuing its core national interests in sync with Monroe doctrine of American Exceptionalism in Western Hemisphere. President Trump further amplified this narrative and policy by stating that he would like to purchase Greenland from Denmark for securing American national interests. To which the Danish Prime Minister replied that Greenland is not for sale which made Donald Trump shot back that he will not only impose tariffs but might even send military to annex it. These moves though on the face of it may sound irrational and but if we observe carefully they are strategically defined and executed.

President Trump’s constant running down of Canada as 51st State of United States and referring to Prime Minister Trudeau as Governor Trudeau underlines the same very sentiment of America as a pre-eminent power in the Western Hemisphere. The bullying of Canada and Mexico by Trump administration on tariffs, immigration and drug trafficking further underscores the American Exceptionalism under the Monroe Doctrine implemented by President Trump.

The Race for Rare Earths

President Trump’s diatribe against Greenland and Denmark was in essence an effort to make it agree to American access to REE/REM reserves of Greenland and keeping China at bay from these reserves. Greenland not only provides access to Arctic waterways to American ships i.e. EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) but also has vast reserves of untapped Rare Earth Minerals (REE/REM) reserves. Rare earth elements (REEs) are vital to daily life, communications, green energy and defense sector. REEs and products containing REEs are almost exclusively controlled and produced by China. Significant long-term strategic state support is required to challenge Chinese dominance of the REE sector and reduce the vulnerability of European and American energy supplies. In the absence of REE industries in Europe or America, the two REE projects in South Greenland, with their potential to become significant suppliers of REE.

Two mining projects in Greenland, Kvanefjeld and Kringlerne, locally known as Kuannersuit and Killavaat Alannguat, have revealed some of the largest resources of REEs in the world. We have earlier talked about the Rare Earth Minerals supplies in our earlier article on the CHIPS War where we have detailed how the Chinese control the majority of rare earth elements and mineral production globally. The Chinese monopoly over REE/REM’s is significant threat to American supply lines. A similar deal has also been proposed by Trump Administration to Ukraine to agree for 500 billion $ deal for Rare Earths in return for the military aid given by it. Ukraine has rare earth minerals like Lithium, Uranium, Graphite some of which is in Russian occupied eastern Ukraine.

However the conversation between President Zelensky of Ukraine in the White House on 28th February 2025 turned out to be heated one with verbal confrontation between him and the American president in the Oval Office. The tone and tenor of the heated argument between President Zelensky of Ukraine with President Trump and JD Vance (Vice President) in Oval Office was not only discourteous but way below the standards of diplomatic niceties specially when America is trying wriggle Ukraine out of situation with Russia for a bigger strategic objective. Later President Zelensky was escorted out of the White House with President Trump tweeting that President Zelensky is not ready for peace. The press conference between the two head of states was cancelled and the rare earth deal was not signed. The whole transcript of the Conversation is reproduced below for our readers:

Trans-Atlantic rift between USA & Europe

President Zelensky might have blown away his only chance to salvage a peace deal for his country right there at that moment in the Oval Office. Interestingly President Macron of France and Polish PM Donald Tusk have come out in support of Ukraine calling Russia the aggressor. This whole divide between US & Europe stems from the fact America is now looking for its own interests in Indo-Pacific viz China and for that it needs to free up its resources in Europe and Ukraine. Even Canada has come out in support of UK & Europe as Trump has stated that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada & Mexico beginning 4th March 2025 with an additional 10% tariffs on China. Canadian foreign minister also came out in open saying we are now in security crisis. The whole European leadership came out in support of Ukraine with Europe’s top diplomat calling for new leader to lead the ‘Free World’.

From European point of view a revisionist Russia having a victory lap in Ukraine is a bigger security threat specially with trade and military relationship with Washington DC turning sour. The Trump Administration doesn’t share this European view as it is viewing its own national interests over its NATO allies of dealing with Russia. Going by the logic of Trump Administration, if the Europeans are so interested in fighting Russia let them fight on their own and its none of our headache to get involved in European affairs. This is exactly what Monroe Doctrine is all about and now it puts the whole of NATO at risk as even President Macron returned empty handed on tariffs and talked about retaliatory tariffs on American steel and aluminum.

The United Kingdom and Ukraine signed a deal on 1st March 2025 to provide Kyiv with a loan of a whopping 2.26 billion pounds. This came a day after the heated clash between President Zelensky in the White House. According to The Kyiv Post, the loan was part of the Group of Seven’s (G7) Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) credit initiative, signed by Zelenskyy during his visit to London. The European allies specially France, Germany and as far as even Australia has backed Ukraine calling out Russia as an aggressor who invaded Ukraine in February 2022. How long can Europe sustain Ukraine independently of America is the question. However, the Europeans are pretty clear about their strategic interests as for them biggest challenge is a revisionist Russia on the European continent and not China. European interests clash with the American ones be it economic, trade or even strategic goals but this is not new phenomenon all throughout 19th & 20th Century the European powers acted independently of an isolationist America between the two oceans.

As US continues to enforce the Monroe Doctrine of American exceptionalism, the trans-Atlantic security order is breaking apart with EU as bloc breaking away from United States when it comes to Trade & strategic interests. If European Union decides to play with India & China acting as bloc in a multi-polar world order; it will further dilute and damage American case for hegemony and its fight for supremacy with China. As a bloc Germany, France & UK and the EU are still among top economies of the world bigger than Russia. The eurozone is the world's third largest economy in terms of its share of global GDP. This is after the United States and China. The European Union's GDP is estimated to be $20.29 trillion (nominal) in 2025. Europe is giving a royal snub to Trump Administration. India and the European Union will push to finalize a free-trade agreement this year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on 28th February 2025 while visiting New Delhi. European Union is looking to secure Trade and Defence partnership with India.

While on the other hand China is pressing with diplomatic messaging across European capitals that your best friend has betrayed you and it is time Europe works with China to create a Multi-Polar world order. The conversations in Brussels have turned to “de-risking” from the US, even as they continue to cut dependencies on China in recognition that Europe is truly alone according to a European diplomat. On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Wang Yi the the top diplomat of China told Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, that Beijing backed Europe and Ukraine having a seat at the table in peace talks, drawing a contrast with Trump, who has said he sees no role for the Europeans. Trade and Economics are different ball game altogether and Europe in this context can cause a lot of heartburn in Washington DC. Expect Trump Administration to go crazy with Tariffs on Europe. The world should brace itself for more economic chaos globally.

The gulf between European mainland and America has never been wider. The Germans specially since Angela Merkel’s time believed in having a back channel open with Russia to hedge off Washington DC something which irked White House while the French always balked on American exceptionalism since the time of Charles De Gaulle. It is worth noting that it was Trump 1.0 who had warned Merkel about Nord Stream 2 pipeline while it were the Europeans were more pragmatic to get a ceasefire to work for 8 years from 2014 to 2022 after Minsk Agreement between France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia. Ultimately Nord Stream 2 pipeline was sabotaged and America willfully sought to re-industrialize itself at the cost of Europe by having such policies under Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act. The French even had diplomatic spat with USA on AUKUS issue and the submarine deal with Australia. The US policy is now more about containing China for which it needs Russia and it doesn’t care much for Europe or its interest.

Trump Administration’s single handed focus is on securing American national interests i.e. “America First” following the Monroe Doctrine of American Exceptionalism in Western Hemisphere fulfilling its ‘manifest destiny’ of being a great power. To achieve this objective it is adopting of myraid of economic and military strategies from trade tariffs to withdrawing from security guarantees of the Trans-Atlantic European order. While America wants to keep the alliance with European powers intact for its industries however it wants the terms of that one sided relationship of the post war era to be renegotiated. With a revisionist Russia marching towards a victory lap in Eastern Ukraine cutting deals with America in Arctic and beyond, America believes that Europe’s destiny is sealed with USA. The extension of American Exceptionalism and its manifest destiny makes the Trump Administration see Europe as America’s backwater.

Europe is already engaging with Trump Administration on the issues of Ukraine war, Trade tariffs and security guarantees of NATO. The threat of American withdrawal from NATO is primarily aimed at getting Europeans to agree to a trade deal with America and increase its military budget as Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor Stephen Miran wrote in November 2024. President Macron of France on his recently concluded visit to Washington DC discussed this with President Trump about Ukraine peace process and Russian revisionist threat to European security. President Macron hinted to the extent that France was willing to provide Germany security guarantees of its Nuclear umbrella in case United States was to withdraw or reduce its presence on the continent. Trump Administration by issuing threats to withdraw from NATO is signaling to Europe that it better re-industrialize itself and re-militarize as America might reduce its forces from Europe and redeploy them in Indo-Pacific to contain China. This strategy would need a Ukraine settlement with Russia which Trump team is negotiating with Vladimir Putin.

Though CDU-SPD (Conservatives) will form the government in Germany’s recent concluded polls however the rise of AfD raises anxiety specially in France which views it as a potential to threat to breakup of European Union, whose one of the prime reason was to contain and avoid the rise of Germany as pre-eminent power on the European continent. American’s vice president JD Vance’s speech in Germany strung a cord that its time Germany re-industrializes itself as European power (albeit outside the union) something which France wont like given the prospects of a united Germany on the continent acting independently under a far right party like AfD. To counter act prospective American tariffs Europe could not only significantly increase its defense spending to cut its reliance on America but also seek FTAs with India & China as alternatives to American markets.

Redemption for Russia

On other side of the Eurasia, America is pursuing hard hitting diplomacy offering sanctions relief to Russia, access to Western Companies, joint collaboration in Hydrocarbon space in Arctic in return for a permanent settlement of Ukrainian conflict acceding to Russia’s annexation of Eastern Ukrainian provinces and Crimea. Interestingly, the Kremlin has indicated that Russia is not averse to such a deal between America & Ukraine over the rare earths. Rather Russia is ready to jointly co-operate with America on exploring Rare Earth Minerals. Rare Earth Elements/Minerals are key resources in modern industry used in production of semiconductor chips, micro electronics, medical technology, weapons systems, rocket engines, communication devices and renewable energy sources.

Russia has huge Rare Earth mineral reserves in Siberian regions like Irkutsk, Yakutia, Tuva and Kabardina-Balkaria in the far east. Tapping these reserves will require billions of dollars of investment and skilled labour. While China has technology to process REE/REM, the Western countries have technology to tap and financial muscle to invest but do not have access to such reserves. Thus access to these resources is something which Russia could use as bargaining chip with America & Europe in a bid to reduce its over reliance on China. The post Ukraine settlement scenario opens up myriad of possibilities of Americans working with the Russians.

The Russian and the American delegation in Saudi Arabia during the just Ukraine peace talks agreed to work together on Hydrocarbons projects in Arctic. We had written in 2016 in our book “The New Global Order” (2016) that USA & Russia have never fought directly against each other rather they fought together in World War II. Russia however also will face challenges from the East and the West both i.e. a rising China which has long claimed regions in far east of Russia and a growing Turkish influence in caucuses and specter of Muslim Brotherhood sponsoring jihadist groups & movements in central Asia. For Russia a working relationship with Washington DC and Israel thus becomes even more pivotal. Russia could also use countries like UAE in Middle East and India in South Asia to project itself as the third pole or the middle pole between US & China. We had called Russia as the joker in the pack way back in 2016 who could be the X factor in the whole geo-political power play.

The Middle Eastern Question

As Europe disconnects strategically from America on issues of trade and Russia the role of Turkey as the second largest NATO military becomes critical. Turkish expansion into Syria and surrender of PKK kurdish militias in Syria puts Israel in a spot of bother who wouldn’t want the regime in Damascus to threaten Druze and Kurds who are closely aligned with Israel. Israel is apparently lobbying with USA to allow Russia bases in Syria to counter act growing Turkish influence. Growing Turkish influence will put IMEEC corridor in cross hairs as Turkey seeks to aligns to with Pakistan and Muslim brotherhood. One should not forget Turkey is gateway to Europe and the MENA region. This would also make GCC countries wary of Turkey who might seek closer co-operation with Israel and United States in the region. The bigger hang over the region is the Iranian Nuclear program which could see significant escalation in coming weeks and months by Israel and USA.

The Indian Opportunity

For us in India the current ruptures in the rules based global order brings significant opportunities for the 5th largest economy in the world. From secure strategic ties with USA on technology, defence and space while hedging the same with trade deals with Europe. We must not forget here that France had backed India even during Cold War when America was hostile to India and backed Pakistan over it. Thus instead of putting all eggs in one American basket we should diversify and use this opportunity to strengthen ties with Russia as Trump Administration is expected to go soft on it to isolate China. Trump tariffs on China and bid to isolate and contain it opens another window of opportunity for India to extract good deals from China in trade and investments in non strategic sectors. India can thus leverage its huge market base of 140 crore people and a 4 trillion dollar economy which is slated to become the third largest in the world by 2030s. India stands in the sweet spot to play up these relationships with USA, Russia, Europe & China for better deals for its people with greater access to technology and resources. India could use its ties with Israel, Gulf countries like UAE, Russia to rally the global south to project itself as a third pole between larger tussle between US & China in Indo-Pacific.

US vs China - Cold War 2.0

This deft move of making peace with Russia on Ukraine along with courting India in the Indo-Pacific region is aimed to pursue its core national interest of stalling and styme the rise of China as a Techno-Industrial power which is the biggest threat to American dominance. To achieve this objective America is willing to forsake its Pax Americana post war order in its relentless pursuit of “America First” by trying to soften Russia, co-opt India in a bid to isolate China inside BRICS and outside it. Trump Administration plans to tighten semiconductor restrictions on China to curb its technological advancements. Discussions are reportedly on with Japan and Netherlands on restricting engineers from Tokyo Electron and ASML from servicing equipment in China.

It is anticipated that these measures could significantly impact China’s semiconductor industry as the it remains heavily reliant on Japanese and Dutch equipment’s in lithographic technology for its chip manufacturing. Thus Trump administration with its laser eyed focus on China is building up on the Tech war initiated by Biden administration in addition to trade tariffs. The Chinese are already abreast of such deft moves by Washington DC with its top diplomat calling trade war as counter productive. China has announced recapitalizing of its banks with 55 billion $ (300 Billion Yuan) of liquidity in a bid to prevent a banking crisis, stimulate its economy as it faces deflationary pressures from inside. President Xi recently remarked to senior members of politburo and state council that, “China must enhance its political capabilities and calmly respond to challenges brought about by changes in the domestic and international situation,” according to a Xinhua News Agency report on Wednesday.

Even the Deep Seek boost to Chinese technology markets is a pumped up bubble much like its real estate. The popular narrative that Chinese have surpassed American technology in AI couldn’t save momentum as NVIDIA reported its earnings in Q3 2025. The Jevons Paradox is in play as the pricing of AI models go down, the demand for low cost efficient computing will increase the deployment more efficient GPUs. At the heart of the Jevons paradox is the idea that as a technology becomes more energy efficient, the cost of using the technology declines. The lower cost spurs consumption. The increased consumption, in turn, rises to wipe out any decreases in energy use the efficiency gains might have initially represented. In response to Deep Seek’s AI models launch in January 2025, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella had remarked "Jevons paradox strikes again!" he tweeted. "As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of."

Nadella subtly twisted Jevons' concept to refer to more efficient development of artificial intelligence. The CEO emphasized that lower cost meant increased demand. But the comment about AI "commoditization" implied that lower costs for artificial intelligence buildouts will, in the larger picture, boost rather than hurt the overall AI growth story. This was further certified with Chinese Companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, Tecnet seeking more NVIDIA H-20 AI Chips. Tencent, Alibaba and ByteDance have significantly increased orders of the H20 a chip specific to China due to U.S. export controls since the Chinese AI startup burst into the global public consciousness last month. NVIDIA is ramping up orders for booming demand for DeepSeek's low-cost AI models. The surge in orders, which is being reported for the first time, underlines Nvidia's dominance of the market and could help alleviate concerns that DeepSeek might cause a slide in AI chip demand. NVIDIA also released Blackwell GPUs to replace the Hopper series. The Blackwell series has been seeing stellar demand for more efficient Computing models and deployment of AI.

Multi-Polarity in Bi-Polarity

Thus the world is now moving towards a technological and AI race in Cold War 2.0 between America & China much like the Space War was between USA & Soviet Union. However China presents a formidable challenge to USA given its rise as a techno-industrial power which Soviet Union never was. In this emerging bi-polarity between US & China, Russia and India could play the role of the third pole co-operating with United States on rare earths, commodities, value additions and providing cost effective services. This would significantly increase the Russian and Indian leverage over China in BRICS and SCO bloc thus emphasizing the “Multi-Polarity in Bi-Polarity” as an emerging trend which we had forecasted long back.

What we see today is that all powers be it America, Russia, China, India and European Union are now targeting their strategic interests over common shared values of liberal global order that arose post the Cold War era. Russia is aiming this co-operation with United States in bid to hedge itself from China and re-build its economy and military industrial complex which was severely stretched due to Ukraine war. India will also a be a net gainer as Europe, Russia and even China would look for alternative markets in case America presses on the with trade tariffs and protectionism. There is prospect that as Trump administration imposes tariffs globally countries like China could take America to WTO whereupon America could withdraw global institutions like WTO and even United Nations which it thinks are now being weaponized against American interests.

We have read in detail how America is ruthlessly pursuing its core national interests through Monroe Doctrine of American Exceptionalism even though it may undermine the very global order it has built and sustained since World War 2. The madman tactics of Trump Administration of disruption may seem way off but it is carefully crafted to forward American interests. World has now entered into a new era with countries jostling for their core national interests a stark departure from rules based post war order. America is no more interested in carrying the burden a global policeman on its shoulders any longer. Fasten your seatbelts as there is turbulence ahead ! It is just getting started !

There is a quote from Spiderman movie that “With Great Powers comes Great Responsibilities”, in scenario of current day Geo-Politics it could be read as “With Great Chaos come Greater Opportunities”

Notes:

1. The Origin of "Manifest Destiny" - Julius W. Pratt - The American Historical Review, Vol. 32, No. 4 (Jul., 1927), pp. 795-798

2. Trump’s Manifest Destiny in the Arctic: The Greenland Gamble - 24th February 2025 - https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/02/24/trumps-manifest-destiny-in-the-arctic-the-greenland-gamble/

3. Inside the race for Greenland's mineral wealth - 27th January 2025 - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d5jwvw9nlo

4. Trump Has the Chance to Make a New Monroe Doctrine - The American Conservative - 23rd November 2024

5. The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine - The National Interest - 21st January 2025 -

6. THE MONROE DOCTRINE AND CURRENT U.S. FOREIGN POLICY - September 2019

7. The New Global Order (2016)

8. China Pumps 300 Billion Yuan Into Banking System via MLF Operation - 25th February 2025 - https://www.cointribune.com/en/china-injects-300-billion-yuan-into-its-banking-system-through-an-mlf-operation-2/

9. China to Inject at Least $55 Billion of Fresh Capital Into Several Big Banks - 25th February 2025 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-26/china-plans-to-start-bank-capital-hike-with-at-least-55-billion

10. Trump Team Seeking to Toughen Biden’s Chip Controls Over China - 25th February 2025 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/trump-administration-seeks-more-restrictions-on-china-tech-weighs-nvidia-curbs

11. https://h.xinhuaxmt.com/vh512/share/12424688?d=134fe72

12. Elon Musk’s Post on X - 28th February 2025 - https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895535520836681851

13. UK provides £2.26 billion loan to Ukraine as Starmer embraces Zelenskyy after White House showdown - 2nd March 2025 - https://www.firstpost.com/world/uk-provides-2-26-billion-loan-to-ukraine-as-starmer-embraces-zelenskyy-after-white-house-showdown-13867911.html

14. EU, India agree to finalize free-trade pact this year, von der Leyen says - 26th February 2025 - https://www.politico.eu/article/india-agrees-with-eu-to-finalize-free-trade-pact-this-year-von-der-leyen-says/#:~:text=India%20and%20the%20EU%20resumed,and%20China's%20assertive%20trade%20practices.

15. Your best friend has abandoned you: inside China’s latest EU charm offensive - 28th February 2025 - SCMP - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3300453/your-best-friends-have-abandoned-you-inside-chinas-latest-eu-charm-offensive

16. Elon Musk’s post on X - 2nd March 2025 - https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1896026564019830820

17. Kurdish militant group PKK declares ceasefire after decades of conflict with Turkey - 1st March 2025 - https://www.npr.org/2025/03/01/nx-s1-5314321/pkk-kurdish-ceasefire-turkey

18. Netanyahu, Katz direct IDF to ‘prepare to defend’ Syrian Druze locale ‘under attack by regime’ - 2nd March 2025 - https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-directs-idf-to-prepare-to-defend-syrian-druze-village-under-attack-by-regime/

19. Israel lobbies US to keep Russian bases in a 'weak' Syria, sources say - Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-lobbies-us-keep-russian-bases-weak-syria-sources-say-2025-02-28/