Reflux in The Global Order
#GeoPolitical Updates
1. Saudi Arabia considers accepting Chinese Yuan for oil sales
2. China and France complete first LNG trade using Yuan
3. Russia considers using Chinese Yuan as reserve currency
4. Saudi Arabia partners with China to build refinery for 83.7 billion Chinese Yuan ($12.2 billion)
5. China and Brazil agree to use Chinese Yuan in cross-border transactions
6. The percentage of global reserves in U.S. Dollars is down from 72% in 1999 to 59% now.
7. Finland all set to join NATO as Turkish Parliament approves its membership.
Post Fact Analysis:
It is China which is gaining the most out of Currency war started by US through Weaponisation of Dollar. Russia, Iran, Saudi all now beginning to trade commodities in Yuan. Not an ideally happy situation for India as China has adversarial relationship with it owing to border disputes. The slide towards the end of Dollar hegemony has begun but it wont be without a catastrophic military conflict that will consume the world. There wont be any net gainers out of this conflict except for global corporate elite who shall impose a new order on subjects worldwide post it.
China’s rise as the other leading pole to US with states like Russia, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, & to an extent Saudis falling in its orbit has huge consequences for India as internationalisation of Yuan undercuts the multi-polarity which India seeks to create. Can Russia really profess multi-polarity while arguing for Chinese built order around Yuan & Shanghai as central piece.
Mr Jaishankar & his colleagues in MEA need to figure this out fast as this Multi Alignment is heading no where but the Chinese way. Unfortunately it will leave India with really hard choices to make. We had written in 2016 in #TheNewGlobalOrder that the world is heading for a new cold war 2.0 between US & China when nothing as such was visible on the horizon. In #TheGreatReset (2022) i had further elaborated on how Russia’s war in Ukraine will only fast track the bi-polarity in Global Order with Russia becoming a tributary state to China. History is now being written as we had forewarned you years back.
Master Strategist in Kremlin now faces the biggest strategic defeat of a more expanded NATO on Russia’s borders than before it invaded Ukraine. This after Turkey ratified Finland membership of NATO clearing its path for membership. So what has Putin achieved thus far through war in Ukraine: 1) Pushed EU into American Lap 2) Lost the biggest Energy client in EU 3) Underwriting China’s global order through Trade of Commodities in Yuan 4) Becoming a Tributary state of China 5) Pushing Russian economy down a few years 6) More expanded NATO on its border 7) Bogged down in a battle of attrition in Ukraine.
Dutchy of Moscow will never feel at ease in the East as culturally & historically it has always been be aligned with European values & culture not the oriental east or the global south. Putin embarked on creating Greater Russia but will end up creating Greater China which will be a bigger headache for the world. America is a declining power & China is rising one. As the world gets bi-polar again from Uni-polar the conflict is eventual. American & Europeans are still soft on China be it Covid-19 lab origins, manufacturing or otherwise. CCP is byproduct of Communists in State Department bankrolled by the Philanthropists at the Wall Street. Get ready for chaos coming to your shores.
The Biden administration has been a disaster for India so to speak bluntly. By boxing Russia into Ukraine, it has enabled China’s rise as the other pole with whom the Wall Street is more comfortable dealing with. It has also reduced India’s leverage over its strategic hedge Russia forcing it to cajole with the West qua China. This is exactly what Kissinger sought from China in 1970 that China comes to aid of Pakistan which will push India towards the Soviet Union.
There was tacit agreement between British & Soviets to keep South Asia divided in camps not allow India & Pakistan to progress independently. South Asia ended up becoming a pawn in Great Game played by the Oligarchs in London, Moscow & New York. Mrs Gandhi was pushed to sign the friendship treaty with Soviets in leadup to 1971 war. Later Soviets manipulated her & skimmed India much to delight of the bigger actors outside. The family & country at large paid a big price in those lost decades.
This time its the same strategy with Wall Street in America seeking China to aid Pakistan & exercise influence over Russia and then luring a cornored India in the region into the western camp. India has already signed off on the foundational pacts with the United States which the Congress party would unlikely to have delivered. Last time the oligarchs didn’t like independent foreign policy mind of Mrs Gandhi. It remains to be seen how they deal with multi-alignment of Narendra Modi. Will India be subject of Great Game again ! Remember there is no NAM this time. Most NAM countries are openly willing to trade with commodities in Yuan and some are even members of BRI. Its fascinating to see this unfold as we speak.