Sky on Fire: The Iran-Israel Clash and Trump’s Pakistan Pivot

As dawn broke over Israel on the morning of June 19, 2025, the skies erupted with chaos as Iranian missiles targeted multiple sites, marking a dramatic escalation in the ongoing shadow war. Reports confirmed a direct hit on Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba, southern Israel’s largest hospital, with plumes of smoke rising amid the debris, injuring several and underscoring the conflict’s human toll. Simultaneously, blasts echoed in Tel Aviv, Holon, Ramat Gan targeting Israeli stock exchange, with Israeli defences scrambling to intercept a barrage of approximately 40 missiles launched in two waves. This aggressive retaliation follows Israel’s recent strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, igniting a seventh day of hostilities. At the heart of this crisis stands U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration teeters on the brink of joining Israel’s campaign, weighing a potential strike on Iran’s fortified nuclear sites like Fordow. Amid this tension, Pakistan emerges as a historical and strategic pawn for the United States, its role echoing Cold War alliances while complicating modern geopolitics. This article explores Trump’s evolving Iran strategy, Pakistan’s longstanding utility to Washington, and the broader implications for India, China, and the global order, weaving together a narrative of rivalry, betrayal, and shifting power dynamics.

Trump’s Iran Strategy

The morning’s Iranian attacks have intensified pressure on Trump to define his Middle East policy. His rhetoric has oscillated wildly threatening Iran with “unconditional surrender” and boasting of “complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” yet hesitating to commit U.S. forces. Reports suggest he approved attack plans targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including the deeply buried Fordow facility, but delays final orders, awaiting Tehran’s response to diplomatic overtures. This ambivalence reflects a gamble: leveraging Israel’s military successes to force Iran into a nuclear deal while avoiding a quagmire reminiscent of Iraq and Afghanistan. Trump’s veto of an Israeli plan to assassinate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signals restraint, yet his warnings of “irreparable damage” if Iran escalates against U.S. interests hint at readiness to strike. The deployment of the USS Nimitz and advanced fighter jets to the region underscores this preparedness, though European leaders have pushed for de-escalation.

Iran’s defiance, led by Khamenei’s rejection of surrender and promises of “severe punishment,” complicates Trump’s approach. The strikes on civilian targets like Soroka Hospital, coupled with Iran’s near-total internet blackout to thwart espionage, signal a regime under siege but unwilling to yield. Analysts speculate Trump’s strategy hinges on regime change or capitulation, yet Iran’s weakened proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis limit its retaliatory options. The economic stakes are high, with oil prices surging 5% amid attacks on Iran’s energy sector, threatening global markets. Trump’s “America First” ethos clashes with hawkish advisors like Senator Lindsey Graham, who advocate pre-emptive strikes, while isolationists like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon leading the MAGA troupe warn of political fallout. This internal divide, exposed in real-time on social media, leaves the world guessing as Trump convenes Situation Room meetings, his decision looming large.

Pakistan’s Historical Role as a U.S. Tool

Pakistan’s narrative intertwines with this crisis, its history as a U.S. ally offering a lens on current manoeuvres. Since its 1947 inception, Pakistan positioned itself as the “most allied ally,” signing Mutual Defence and Security Pacts in 1954 and 1959. This alliance peaked during the Cold War, with the Badaber air base near Peshawar hosting U-2 spy flights over the Soviet Union, a move that provoked Khrushchev’s 1960 warning of retaliatory strikes. Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s 1960 Congress speech cemented this loyalty, earning secret pledges from Kennedy and Johnson to protect Pakistan not just from Communism but from India. The 1980s Soviet-Afghan War further solidified this role, with Pakistan’s ISI channelling U.S. and British aid to Afghan mujahideen, leveraging its Gilgit Scouts and strategic location.

Yesterday, when General Asim Munir of Pakistan met Donald Trump in White House it is believed thar Trump has offered of 5th-generation stealth jets, advanced missiles, and financial aid reprises this playbook, aiming to secure Pakistani bases and logistics for a potential Iran campaign. Pakistan’s proximity to Iran enhances its value, while the deal counters China’s growing influence, marked by the impending J-35A fighter deliveries. Historically, Washington’s support shielded Pakistan against India, a dynamic now strained as Trump pivots toward Islamabad. This shift, however, risks domestic backlash in Pakistan, where public sentiment often opposes U.S. interventions, and regional instability along the Iran border. Pakistan’s leadership, under General Asim Munir, weigh these gains against potential Iranian retaliation and strained Chinese ties, echoing its Cold War balancing act.

The Indo-US Partnership at a Crossroads

This U.S.-Pakistan realignment fractures the Indo-US strategic partnership, once a triumph of decades of diplomacy. From Vajpayee’s “natural partnership” to the 2008 Civil Nuclear Deal under Manmohan Singh, and Modi’s 2+2 Dialogues and QUAD revitalization, the alliance matured into a robust defence framework. Yet, Trump’s second term has eroded this trust. The 2+2 Dialogue’s disappearance and QUAD’s stagnation reflect Washington’s waning interest, replaced by a Pakistan pivot. The crypto-funded WLF1 deals and Munir’s White House invitation signal a betrayal, with the Pentagon lauding Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in Iran intelligence. This shift stems from India’s defiance its Russia ties post-Ukraine, BRICS leadership, and push for non-dollar trade challenge U.S. dollar supremacy and Pax Americana.

India perceives a U.S.-orchestrated containment strategy, arming Pakistan with nuclear capabilities and reviving its economy via covert channels. The proposed arc from Pakistan through Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, with Bangladesh and Myanmar insurgents pressuring India’s east, aims to bleed China’s BRI routes while locking India in regional conflicts. Economist Jeffrey Sachs’ warning of U.S. efforts to weaken a rising India resonates, as New Delhi faces escalated Pakistan-backed terror and a disrupted civilizational resurgence. India’s response should be deepening BRICS ties, FTAs with European Union and accelerating defence projects like the AMCA jet, rekindling defence ties with Russia and open channels of strategic communication with China on Trade and Investment. Though it would further strain U.S. relations further, inviting economic penalties yet India must continue to hedge for a multi-polar world and engage itself with global south countries in Africa, ASEAN and Middle East region.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

China’s role in all this adds complexity, as its $60 billion CPEC investment in Pakistan and Iran partnerships is at risk from U.S. moves. The potential loss of Pakistan as a military client, with U.S. jets replacing Chinese J-35As, threatens Beijing’s South Asian foothold. Iran’s destabilization could disrupt China’s energy imports, while a U.S.-led arc challenges BRI routes through Xinjiang. Xi Jinping’s “deep concern” over Israel’s actions and mediation offers signal a counterstrategy, possibly bolstering Iran and opening up trade with India and Russia. China will have to navigate a delicate balance supporting allies, trading partners in BRICS while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S.

Russia plays a central role in the BRICS+ alignment, using the bloc as a strategic tool to challenge the Anglo-American axis and promote a multipolar global order. Since co-founding BRICS in 2009, Russia has driven its expansion to include Brazil, India, China, South Africa, and new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia, and the UAE, notably during the 2024 Kazan Summit. President Vladimir Putin has positioned BRICS as a counterbalance to Western dominance, advocating for initiatives like the New Development Bank and the BRICS Bridge to reduce dependency on the U.S. dollar and evade Western sanctions. Russia's alignment with China and Iran, including joint military exercises and trade in non-dollar currencies, amplifies BRICS' anti-Western stance, raising concerns in the U.S. and UK about eroding their financial and geopolitical influence. This shift, coupled with BRICS' growing economic clout representing 35.6% of global GDP and 45% of the world’s population intensifies Anglo-American anxieties over a fragmenting global order, particularly as Russia leverages BRICS to mitigate its isolation from Western sanctions over Ukraine.

The Iran-Israel conflict, amplified by Trump’s indecision and Pakistan’s strategic pivot, is reshaping global geopolitics. The U.S. seeks to reassert dollar dominance, viewing India’s multipolar vision and BRICS currency initiatives as threats. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, are now set back but not destroyed, fuel a proxy war environment, with Israel’s precision strikes targeting Natanz and Arak, Fordow. For India, the stakes are existential containment risks isolating it economically and militarily while China faces a dual challenge protecting its periphery while countering U.S. encirclement. Pakistan, historically a U.S. tool, now navigates a tightrope between Washington’s largesse and regional adversaries. Trump’s gamble using Israel and Pakistan to pressure Iran could either secure a historic deal or ignite a wider war, with oil prices and global stability hanging in the balance. As missiles rain over Israel and Tehran braces for more, the world watches a geopolitical chessboard where every move reshapes alliances and power.

Conclusion

The morning of June 19, 2025, marks a turning point, with Iranian missiles striking Israeli soil and Trump’s Iran strategy teetering on action or diplomacy. Pakistan’s historical role as a U.S. ally, from Cold War espionage to today’s potential Iran theatre, underscores its strategic utility, yet its alignment carries risks of regional instability. The fraying Indo-US partnership, driven by India’s autonomy and U.S. containment fears, clashes with China’s defensive manoeuvres, creating a volatile multipolar landscape. This crisis, rooted in nuclear rivalries and economic power plays, challenges the established order, leaving nations to navigate a future where cooperation and conflict intertwine. As the war unfolds, the decisions made in Washington, Islamabad, Tel Aviv, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing will define the next chapter of global geopolitics.