The Aftershocks of Syria – Reshaping the Middle East

Authored by Navroop Singh & Himja Parekh

The events in Syria as we have discussed in our earlier posts sent shockwaves globally given how quickly the Assad regime wilted away against the rebel offensive. Ever since Syrian rebels lead by Al Joulani (Ahmed Al Sharaa) took over the reins in Damascus many questions have been doing the round. The biggest of all is about intelligence failure of Russia and the question about its military bases in Latakia and Tartus provinces on the Syrian Coast. These bases are important for Russian operations in Africa specially Niger, Chad, Libya and Sahel region.

It is the sound of recriminations for President Vladimir Putin; for the commanders of Russia’s forces in Syria; for General Valery Gerasimov , head of the General Staff, the GRU, and the Defense Ministry all for having failed to detect, warn, or act on the Turkish, Israeli and American preparation of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) forces for their drive to Damascus to replace Bashar al-Assad, and allowing the Israeli Air Force (IAF) to stop Hezbollah from reinforcing its units in Syria from Lebanon, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps from flying reinforcements from Iran.

What we see in Syria is the sum of the worst misjudgements and mistakes the Russians have made in the Ukraine. In Ukraine there has been learning from the mistakes by the Russians and recovery of their momentum by changing their strategy, thereby causing huge losses to Ukrainian troops and PMCs. It is unlikely that that the setbacks in Syria will lead to Putin making more concessions to Washington on Ukraine. On the contrary, we believe it will harden the positions on the Ukraine and releases the General Staff to wage strategic war with the US with purpose re-establishing the upper hand whilst negotiating with Trump administration in Washington.

It is already being reported that while the Russians have evacuated the heavy equipment from Syria the Russian officials are in touch with representatives of armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the Syrian territory. The tactical and operational difficulties are insurmountable for Russia making it to negotiate with the Turks a safe-passage agreement for full withdrawal from the country of all Russians. The biggest folly for Russians was allowing the Israelis unopposed freedom of action in the air above Syria and Lebanon. The land corridor across Iraq is closed – Deir ez-Zor was taken by the Kurds and the track in the desert by militants from [the US base] al-Tanf. To transfer all that is required through the air to Damascus is not allowed by the Israeli Air Force, threatening to simply shoot down the aircraft.

The other big loser of the events in Syria is Iran whereby its hegemonic dream of Shia Crescent or the Axis of Resistance has taken a huge blow with Lebanon and Syria falling into the Turkish & American-Israeli sphere of influence. Iran's influence on the region is now at a record low. The Axis of Resistance is almost defeated. As a result, the balance of power established in the last decade has been broken: Israel and Turkey have noticeably strengthened, the monarchies of the Persian Gulf remained in their interests, but the fallout of Iran as an element of the system of controls and balances will lead to the reassembly of the entire Middle East and create new challenges for Russia. Israel systematically knocked the ground out from under the feet of Iranian supporters. Of course, in the case of Syria, the result is most clearly visible: the state fell, chaos and anarchy reigned on its territory. But other members of the Axis are not doing well.

The armed opposition in Syria was prepared by specialists of the special services of Britain, the United States and Turkey. Assad's opponents were also provided with technical and financial support. Thus, Tehran is in an extremely unpleasant situation for the first time in a long time. It is quite possible that the Iran regime might for nuclear test to secure itself which could precipitate situation further that could entail Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities in near future and subsequent coup to dethrone the mullah-IRGC axis with America’s blessings and support.

In general, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria is a huge loss for Iran, says Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "For Tehran, Damascus was a golden stone in the "Axis of Resistance". A lot depended on the Arab Republic. In particular, it was through it that the main supplies of weapons to Shiite movements throughout the region went," he says. Tehran will have to learn to live in a new reality as Syria is almost irretrievably lost for it. Trump’s Maximum pressure on Iran campaign will bring a lot of problem for Russia. Tehran has already weakened significantly, and in the future, it may even leave the axis of Russian influence. Given the fact that until recently Russia’s regional policy was based on the Syria-Iran line, Moscow will now have to re-calibrate the whole Middle Eastern strategy!

Russian Loss and Turkish Betrayal

All the repeated attempts to promote a Russo-Turkish Alliance since 2015 have been a complete failure by the Russian side. Not only has Turkey been funding anti-Russian Fifth Columns in Central Asia, but it has now openly promoted anti-Russian movements and aligned itself entirely with openly Salafi-jihadist groups, such as Chechen terrorists, who singing "Soon, soon" say they will "re-establish Order in the Caucasus". The Turkestan Jihadists in Syria are wowing to target China as well. In the space of four years, Turkey has managed to compromise or even completely depose key allies for the Russian Soft Power strategy around the region by taking advantage of the obvious weaknesses of such a strategy. Armenia, now aligning itself with the West, Assad's Syria, now completely collapsed and deposed Marxist-Leninist Kurdish movements, which have their HQs in Russia, such as the PKK, are now diminished. Haftar's Libyan National Army in Eastern Libya/Cyrenaica are already countered.

Now the Turkish sphere of influence is in the Middle East and will possibly expand to the Balkans, while the Russian sphere is limited to merely rogue states with low to no influence around the globe and the Central Asian republics and Hungary, of course. Russian foreign policy planners need to start realigning their vision towards a rational Pan-Slavism/Pan-Orthodoxism rather than an irrational Turkophile Eurasianism that will lead nowhere since the ethos and goals of both peoples are clearly differentiated. Even Putin confidantes & mentor like Alexander Dugin are accepting Erdogan betrayed Russia going along with NATO allies USA & Israel. Russian Telegram channels were aghast & furious some even blaming Kremlin for Military Intel Failure in Syria.

Syria is strategic defeat for Russia & in Ukraine also a three-day war is now running into one thousand plus day war with lakhs killed and injured is not great winning for nibbling of small pieces of land. The ceasefire offer by President Trump is an offer for Putin to get Russia out of the rathole its trapped in and rebuild itself instead of funnelling this vortex. We are not in Middle Ages of barter system and military conflicts are not solved this way from Yalta Agreement to Atlantic Charter to Shimla Agreement are point in history. Trump & Bibi (Netanyahu) are giving Putin that way out of chaos in Syria & Ukraine. Trump’s recent post on Truth Social was clear that you have lost fair & square in Syria, should have never defended Bashar Al Assad in Syria. He also said the war in Ukraine can be endless one but i am offering you a ceasefire. Take it Vladimir and may be China’s Xi can help you.

Russia should ideally accept the ceasefire in Ukraine as it has made significant gains in Eastern Ukrainian provinces in Kherson, Donetsk & Luhansk in addition to Crimea which it occupied in 2014. A ceasefire in Ukraine maintaining the status quo on the frontlines and a pledge for No Nato membership of Ukraine for 25 years should be good deal however given infamous American betrayal I don’t think Kremlin would agree for anything less than written agreement/guarantees on this issue. Russian foreign minister Lavrov has rebuked the Trump’s offer of a ceasefire without formal recognition four Ukrainian provinces as part of Russia.

Hurrah for Israel and Commiserations for Kurdistan

On the other hand, in south of Syria across the Golan heights, Israel has strengthened its position by destroying aircraft, warships and strategic installations in Syria to prevent the opposition from reaching them. Israeli Airforce has destroyed Syrian Airforce jets & Naval fleet at Latakia as well virtually disarming the Syrian state. Israeli PM Netanyahu recently remarked said that the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel for almost 60 years, would remain Israeli 'for eternity' on December 9! Israel has occupied Mt Hermon in Syrian Golan heights from where Israel has the vantage view of Syrian capital Damascus as well as surveillance of the alleys to Lebanon across the valley. Israeli tanks are now just 40 Kms south west of Syrian Capital of Damascus in Quneitra district. Israeli strikes on Syrian military targets were reportedly the largest air operation Israel has carried out in its history with nearly 250 airstrikes. There is total domination of Israel over Syria & Lebanon after Assad regime fell. It also sends a message to Turkey that Israel is an equal partner in the spoils of this victory in Syria along with USA.

In the Syrian capital of Damascus, on other hand Ahmed Al Sharaa is consolidating his position by re-constituting ministry of defence and talking of disarming all militias. This will be quiet a heady task as Turkish backed Joulani doesn’t get along well with the Syrian Kurds who are US allied and backed by Israel. The Syrian Kurds are labelled as PKK terrorists by Turkey. SDF is nothing but rebranding of YPG/YPJ i.e. Syrian Kurdish militias who were rebranded by America as SDF to escape terror tag of PKK. They Syrian kurds may resist giving up arms and surrender their territory to Turkish rebels ruling from Damacus. The ethnic faultlines of Syria between Sunnis, Salafis, Alawaites, Druze and Kurdish people could prove to be handful to govern.

The British, Americans, French, Germans, United Nations, Qataris, UAE are all lining up to open relationship with new Government in Syria. India has talking terms with Taliban in Afghanistan so we won’t be surprised if we become part of re-construction efforts in Syria too. Russian Chechen leader Kadyrov & even British, Americans are contemplating removing the HTS from banned terror list.

Af-Pak region

Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s modernity diktat in Syria dictated by Ottoman Turkey is riling up commentary in Afghanistan that may be Taliban should also embrace modernity like the Turkish group HTS in Syria. Flyers in Afghanistan out in open questioning Akhundzada's rigid religious policy on Afghan society, seeking more liberalism to promote legitimacy on lines with Syria under Jolani. But Taliban can’t embrace Modernity like HTS because Talibs come from Pashtun Tribes and Shuras who don’t support Modernity.

Also if Taliban embraces modernity then ISKP & AQIS will gain more traction in Afghanistan & Central Asia. ISKP (Islamic State in Khorasan Province) & AQIS (Al Qaeda in Indian Sub-continent) is already in crosshairs with Taliban with recent assassination of Haqqani network minister in Kabul. There recent attacks of ISKP on Taliban and busting of ISKP hideouts shows the intra-jihadist rivalry that has erupted in the Pashtun heartland. The Taliban has accused Pakistan for interference and using ISKP modules to target Haqqani network who were once sponsored by Pakistan’s ISI itself. Recent attacks by Pakistani military in Afghanistan and Taliban’s counter strike across the Durand line further highlights the precarious nature of conflict arising in the Af-Pak region which could have significant impact on Indian sub-continent.

The recent coup in Bangladesh also adds to the situation as the new government in power under Yunnus has opened and relaxed ties with Pakistan, allowing arms shipments from Karachi and if the chatter is to believed then Bangladesh could be the next safe haven for ISKP & AQIS jihadists to target India from the eastern frontier. The lawless border with Myanmar, the nacro terror syndicates running from Golden Triangle could induce more chaos, terror strikes in India’s east and North East. While the Taliban is going after ISKP, Pakistan’s ISI will allow ISKP& AQIS to be shipped to Bangladesh as staging ground for attacks into India while offering plausible deniability about its direct involvement. Even the Western Powers wouldn’t want Taliban in full control, as groups like ISKP & AQIS will continue to grow in tribal areas of Afghanistan for South Asian & Central Asian theatre which is likely to be activated next. It is worth noting here that majority of ISIS (Islamic State/Daesh) carders in thousands from Syria escaped via Turkey and slipped into Afghanistan training for future missions of Ghazwa-e-Hind along with AQIS.

China has played smart so far by not getting dragged into a conflict globally and even made detente with India in Ladakh. From the current events in the middle east, it can be said USA & China are two poles in the world with Russia status as being Junior Ally to China. It neither has economic or tech muscle which China possesses. Russia is a large size gas station in Siberia & a Commodity Warehouse! India’s leverage has reduced with Russian influence declining in the middle east even though Russia is strategically still relevant but significantly degraded. India’s biggest headache will be Bangladesh swamp as the base for ISKP, Al Qaeda, Jamaat and a lawless Mayanmar in North East. The rapprochement with China will be slowed to gauge reaction from DC Establishment and get Department of Justice monkey off its back. Indian foreign policy establishment has to re-calibrate qua Russia, China, Bangladesh, Iran Port Deal and how to deal with USA under Trump. The Wolf Warrior diplomacy and filibustering will be counterproductive.

All Roads lead to Asia

With EU already ready for chain of events, Asia the main theatre is being prepared i.e. Pakistan/Bangladesh. Turkey will push towards C Asia/Caucasus states as it is the bridge between EU & Asia and a highly revisionist NATO country. The Turkey/Qatar combo pushed Muslim Brotherhood through Arab Spring. Iran was its biggest revisionist enemy under doctrine of Wilayat Faqih. Muslim Brotherhood had threatened the Gulf Arab monarchies thus initiated reforms in their societies sought a détente with Israel. The Saudi-Israel partnership here becomes pivotal for IMEEC Corridor which needs Saudi establishing and recognising the state of Israel. The finishing of Iranian proxies in the region by Israel like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon provides Gulf Arab states some relief however they will be now more dependent on American-Israeli forces as we see them launch a campaign against Houthis in Yemen.

The taking out of General Soleimani of IRGC triggered the Iranian reaction leading to sequence events as they unfolded over last couple of years. With Iranian influence diluted the defacto doctrine of Arabian Peninsula is Ottoman empire and the coming to power of Syrian Muslim brotherhood in Damascus will present a new kind of threat of Gulf Arab monarchies with Iranian proxies being the first one. Turkey is placed in a unique position so it’s taken full advantage of it. Two immediate outcomes of this would be, one a Lifeline for Pakistan as it becomes relevant with CPT (China, Pakistan & Turkey) axis in play. North Korea was already a part of this axis hence we are seeing India re-open its embassy there. Things can change incredibly fast, as we speak the Muslim Brotherhood now has a free run in the region. All bad roads lead to Qatar and with the pipeline in play the KSA-Qatar enmity will hasten. We might see other countries witness attempts of Arab Spring with General Sisi in Egypt already feeling the heat from carders of Muslim Brotherhood and the chatter that Egypt is next after Syria.

Collectively and with help from funding from Turkey/Qatar of Muslim Brotherhood ideology will ignite European Union. In the next theatre in Asia, when China will become the target of jihadist attacks on its BRI pipelines the Taiwan issue will get a lifeline and USA will get that time to migrate the semi-conductor supply lines back home before a big conflict ignites in Indo-Pacific. Probably at some time in future even India might have to take action on its eastern front to combat the jihadist threat rising in Bangladesh. Russia has indeed suffered a setback in Syria but it would be foolhardy to underestimate it given It has survived too many winters. But for now, Russia’s dependence on China is confirmed. This makes things interesting for India as it has attempted a border patch up with China and good relationship with Russia giving Moscow some leverage on the Asian continent instead of fully falling into the Chinese orbit.

As bipolarity rises Turkey will use this card of Uyghur jihadists against China with whom it’s an ally in CPT (China-Pakistan-Turkey) axis to gain leverage. USA will happily encourage this as Turkey is also a NATO ally. We can call it multipolarity in bipolarity. Geo economically the dreams of De-dollarisation are farfetched with no BRIC currency or army on the anvil. There never was a serious proposal to begin with. India’s MEA S Jaishankar has already shot down this proposal after President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they dumped on US Dollar. To float an alternate reserve currency one of these 3 at minimum must be present - power to print money at will &/or an army to back it up &/or gold to back the Fiat.

USA has two, China plausibly has one - the rest have none. Multipolarity will mean geoeconomic leverage to trade in individual currencies to an extent, USA may tolerate it upto a point but not when the dollar will be a loser. If anything, Euro will be the loser. And we are still not talking of the Eurobond market which is anyway dollar by another name as well as petrodollars. China has begun the process of its Island chain Strategy but now that Russian bases are up for grabs in MENA region. Israel has shown the world how it thrives despite being surrounded by inimical neighbours.

All money washing roads lead there as do all revolutions. All revolutions need the following- money, arms and a few useful idiots. This is why USA & Israel are joined at the hip. Useful idiots supply line is unlimited courtesy CIA and the media who is always happy to put lipstick on a pig to make it look like Peppa. If this goes as per plan then we are looking at multiple locations of chaos simultaneously to weed out those that can’t play the long game as multipolarity plays out. Good luck to Africa. Let us hope India comes out of her planning commission mindset and plays on the front foot as this time the short sellers are many, they have very deep pockets and the bears having tasted honey are in no mood to hibernate.