The Victory That Wasn’t: Israel’s Strategic Failure in Iran War

Introduction

In our last article we had in detailed examined how the war in Iran has been a strategic disaster for America in all terms geo-politically as well as economically. From fracture in NATO to fraying alliances in Gulf countries to stress on the bond market to America getting caught in its Suez moment in Strait of Hormuz. The strategic blunders of America & Israel have turned Iran from a sanctioned pariah state into a regional power which now controls 24% of global energy trade. Till now what we heard was from geo-political analysts point of view and reporting in sections of media on how this Iran war has backfired on America & Israel. However today we are going to discuss a bombshell report of an Israeli newspaper Ynet.il titled “The Absolute Victory That Wasn’t: This Is How the Operation to Topple the Iranian Regime Was Torpedoed” dt 25^th April 2026. The said article is an eye opening account which has been approved by Israeli military for publication. Much of the content of the article translated from Hebrew to English have been reproduced in our own narration of the events as they transpired.

Operation Rising Lion: A Catastrophic Failure

In the spring of 2026, as the dust settled on a 40-day war that reshaped the Middle East, a profound sense of missed opportunity hangs over Israel’s defence establishment. The operation to topple Iran’s Khomeinist regime long dreamed of as the ultimate solution to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile arsenal, and proxy network had been meticulously planned, partially launched, and then abruptly halted. What was supposed to be the crowning achievement of Israeli intelligence and military ingenuity became, in the words of those involved, “the absolute victory that wasn’t.” This is the inside story of a high-stakes gambit that blended audacious Mossad engineering, political brinkmanship, and fragile alliances, only to collapse under the weight of American hesitation, Turkish realpolitik, and Iranian resilience.

The seeds of the plan stretched back more than a decade. During Meir Dagan’s tenure as Mossad director under Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, analysts had floated the idea of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and installing a hand-picked insider who had been quietly recruited. The scheme promised to neutralize every Iranian threat nuclear, conventional, and asymmetric in a single surgical strike. Internal opposition from senior intelligence figures killed it then, but the concept never truly died. When Benjamin Netanyahu returned to the Prime Minister’s Office in 2023, he revived the question relentlessly: Were there plans on the shelf to bring down the regime? Netanyahu saw regime change as the only way to escape the endless cycle of conflict that had defined Israel’s security since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Dedi Barnea, appointed Mossad chief in 2021, turned the idea into an operational reality. He shifted resources dramatically toward influence operations inside Iran a once-marginal portfolio that became the agency’s central focus. Over four years, the Mossad constructed what insiders described as a poison machine: a sophisticated array of digital propaganda, social media manipulation, encrypted communications with dissidents, and covert support for ethnic minorities. The goal was to erode the regime from within while preparing for decisive external pressure. By late 2023, this influence array had reached operational maturity, capable of amplifying protests, sowing discord among the Revolutionary Guards, and coordinating with armed groups in Iran’s periphery.

The strategy was deliberately dual-track. From above, it called for decapitation: Israeli Air Force precision strikes to eliminate Khamenei and the top echelon of political and military leadership the first time Israel would target a sitting head of state. From below, it relied on mass mobilization. Kurdish, Baluchi, and Ahwazi militias, trained and equipped in Iraqi Kurdistan, would launch a ground invasion, seizing border regions and marching toward Tehran. Simultaneously, the Mossad’s influence network would ignite street protests, while U.S. public statements from the White House would lend legitimacy. The endgame was an alternative leadership, possibly drawn from exile or moderate insiders, installed in the power vacuum.

Two earlier operations provided the psychological fuel. Operation Arrows of the North in September 2024 and Operation With a Lioness (Kalavi) in June 2025 demonstrated Israel’s ability to strike deep inside enemy territory with devastating effect. The pager explosions that crippled Hezbollah and the targeted killings of its leadership created an aura of invincibility. Israeli planners felt they could replicate that success on a national scale against Iran. Overconfidence was palpable as one senior official later admitted, “Someone who can blow up thousands of beepers in one diagnosis believes he can do anything.”

The spark came in January 2026 when Israel along with America acted in tandem to ignite protests in Iran after orchestrating the fall of regime in Iran. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent had remarked that US indulged in financial warfare against Iranian currency Rial leading to its collapse and bank runs. That precipitated January protests which are believed to have been co-ordinated with Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad. Many have speculated that Mossad hired Afghan refugees in Iran last year 2025 to cause riots in Iran. They tried similar trick this time but that made the regime in Tehran crackdown brutally on protesters in January 2026 providing the perfect scenario where the Israeli’s could convince President Donald Trump and Americans to launch Operation Epic Fury in a bid to topple the regime in Tehran.

Tens of thousands of Iranians poured into the streets in protests that, while not directly orchestrated by Israel, were supercharged by years of Mossad groundwork. The regime responded with savage repression, killing an estimated 7,000 to 8,000 civilians. The bloodshed shocked the world and created the perfect pretext for America to intervene. President Donald Trump declared “help on the way,” ordering U.S. Central Command forces to the Gulf and creating a binding political commitment. Netanyahu instructed the IDF and Mossad to accelerate war that had been scheduled for mid-2026 initially and was moved forward to February 2026 to capitalise on the situation and anti-regime sentiment in Tehran.

On February 11, 2026, Netanyahu sat in the White House Situation Room while Barnea joined via encrypted video link. The Mossad chief laid out the full plan: leadership assassinations, Kurdish invasion, protest ignition, and regime replacement. Trump, still riding the high from the January 3 CIA-orchestrated kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, was enthusiastic. He envisioned a Tehran version of Caracas swift, clean, and decisive. The atmosphere was electric. Netanyahu flew home convinced the Americans were fully aligned.

The New York Times in its article dt. 7^th April 2026 on the situation room meeting states that, “Besides, Mossad’s intelligence indicated that street protests inside Iran would begin again and with the impetus of the Israeli spy agency helping to foment riots and rebellion an intense bombing campaign could foster the conditions for the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime. The Israelis also raised the prospect of Iranian Kurdish fighters crossing the border from Iraq to open a ground front in the northwest, further stretching the regime’s forces and accelerating its collapse.”.

The next day, without Israelis present, the mood shifted. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe tore into the proposal. Rubio reportedly called it bullshit while Ratcliffe labelled it a farce. They feared chaos, endless entanglement, and domestic political blowback. President Trump listened to the opinions and gave a go ahead to the Operation Epic Fury after Mossad relayed its intelligence with US military planners that Khamenei along with his top advisors would be meeting in an on ground meeting. The Israeli’s who had been planning for this for decades though this is their moment for decapitation strike followed by a regime change in Tehran. The American president bought into the Israeli plan and went ahead in the Iran war.

Then came the decisive phone call from Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had his own grievances with Kurdish aspirations, Israeli influence, and NATO dynamics, urged President Trump to stop the invasion. Erdoğan argued that empowering Kurds risked igniting demands for an independent Kurdistan that would carve up Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. He also positioned himself as the indispensable regional broker, reminding Trump that Turkey was the gateway to stability. Hours before the Kurdish force already positioned and briefed was to cross the border, Trump ordered a halt. The ground leg of the plan died before it began. The Kurdish commanders & Peshmerga leaders in Iraq refused to become the mercenaries for Israel against the Iranians. Twice the United States had betrayed them once at hands of Saddam in 1990s and later in their fight against ISIS in Iraq & Syria. The Israeli’s had turned furious at US Envoy Tom Barack who they alleged acted as Erdogan’s man rather than America’s diplomat in Turkey.

Israel proceeded with what it could control and took Trump along with it in this joint campaign in Iran. Israeli Air Force strikes eliminated much of Iran’s top leadership and hammered Basij roadblocks in early days of the way on 28^th February 2026. Command-and-control systems took a mortal blow, yet the Iranian people did not rise. Fear of Revolutionary Guard massacres outweighed decades of hatred and the streets of Iran remained empty. The influence array, for all its sophistication, could not overcome the regime’s willingness to slaughter its own citizens. The Kurdish militias, poised in Iraq to enter Iran, stood down after Turkey drew a red line with America. Protests that Israeli Mossad had counted on never materialized. The regime, though bloodied, adapted as it retained enough structure to reorganize, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and inflicted economic pain that Washington had not fully anticipated.

By day four of the war, Israeli influence in the White House had begun to be questioned. MAGA voices at home began questioning the entire enterprise. Netanyahu found himself portrayed as the leader who had dragged America into another Middle East quagmire. The war dragged on for 40 days before a ceasefire was announced where Donald Trump despite threats to send a civilisation to stone age chickened out at last minute extending the ceasefire but not after significant damage had been done to energy facilities in middle east. Israel’s reckless strikes on Tehran Oil depot caused acid rain & later its strikes at South Pars Gas field drew hard Iranian retaliation against Qatari Gas facility of Ras Laffan, Fujairah facility in UAE, Yanbu pipeline in Saudi Arabia to name a few. Extensive damage has been caused to US bases in middle east depleting its ammunition & interceptor stocks to decade lows

The brutal force unleashed by the Israeli’s & the Americans failed to produce a regime change but rather a bruised and battered regime in Tehran survived the war. IRGC’s decentralised command structure and succession plan proved effective in blunting Israeli & American planning. Iran was here ably backed by Russia & China who provided strategic & satellite intelligence, pinpoint accuracy of US and Israeli targets in the middle east. The Iranian strikes on energy & military infrastructure in Gulf countries and even Israel with that precision took military planners in Washington and Tel-Aviv by surprise. The fact that Iran could hit ships in Strait of Hormuz with low cost drones and close the strait taking control over it further underscores American-Israeli planners failed to war game fully Iran’s capabilities of asymmetrical warfare. This is not nothing short of strategic disaster for America & Israel as President Trump now seeks to get an exit ramp out of Iran while the Iranians emboldened are now refusing to negotiate & surrender to American demands.

In Israel, the recriminations has quietly begun some are blaming Trump and Vance for losing nerve at the critical moment. Others have questioned whether the Mossad’s ambitions had ever been realistic for a country of 90 million with a ruthless, entrenched security apparatus. Preparations for a hypothetical “third stage” reportedly remained on the shelf, but the window has closed. Three months into the conflict in Iran, the United States is now using naval blockade strategy in Gulf of Oman to hit Iranian oil economy forcing it to come to negotiating table for a deal with United States.

Operation Economic Fury

In essence as Wall Street Journal is reporting President Trump is now in favour of pursuing naval blockade strategy ratching up pressure on Iran and its oil trading partner in China to get diplomatic agreement with Tehran. Washington now favours naval blockade and economic diplomacy over military escalation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already sanctioned TeaPot refineries in China that refines Iranian oil. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has warned financial institutions to the sanctions risks associated with independent “teapot” oil refineries in China, primarily in Shandong Province, given their continued role in importing and refining Iranian crude oil. Treasury Department on Friday said that it was targeting Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, China’s second-largest teapot or independent refinery. Hengli is “one of Tehran’s most valued customers” and has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Iranian military through crude oil purchases, the Treasury added. It also imposed new sanctions on about 40 shipping firms and vessels alleged to be operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet.

The treasury has already warned banks in Oman, entities in Dubai, Hong Kong and China who are facilitating IRGC shadow oil trade money in what we called “Tehran Loop”. Tehran loop as we have explained earlier is the ship to ship transfer of Iranian Oil off coast of Oman, with its transhipment documents, money getting routed through nodes in Dubai and now through Oman, Hongkong and China ultimately some of it lands up in tax havens governed by City of London and European real estate. The American pressure on China by blockading Chinse energy shipments from Iran is unlikely to yield results as China has land, railway BRI route through central Asia. China has 1.3 billion barrels crude reserves for six months, huge industrial leverage over rare earths, chemicals, fertilizers, tech partnerships with Big Tech to squeeze America out.

The prolong blockade strategy could backfire by derailing the much touted President Trump’s visit to China in May mid 2026. The Chinese & the Iranians don’t have to face an election and have Russia to back up but Donald Trump does not have that leverage as he has midterms to face in November 2026. Further longer the US blockade continues the bigger the damage to global economy would be in energy prices, jet fuel, oil & gas, petrochemicals, fertilisers, food stuffs, spiking inflation, stress on US bond markets as American allies in Indo-pacific like South Korea, Japan even in Europe face oil & natural gas crisis hitting the US supply chains.

The Strategic Failures in Iran War

The Israeli’s security establishment as per Ynet article now faces a scenario where President Trump would end up making a deal with Iran trying to wriggle of this war. IN return for Iranian promises, US will offer some sanctions relief to Iran for tens of billions of dollar. As per Israeli’s, Iran will end up using this relief money that will quiet the domestic unrest, rebuild missile stocks, and rearm proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias in the region. This will be a big strategic failure for Israel’s security establishment.

The operation rising lion’s failure carries profound lessons. Israel had invested enormous resources financial, human, and diplomatic into a high-risk gamble. The Israeli calculus of swift decapitation strike would be followed by a coloured revolution against the regime in Tehran proved to be wrong. The assumption that ethnic minorities could replicate the rapid Syrian collapse ignored Iran’s different demographics and geography. Most critically, the plan relied on perfect synchronization with Washington. When American domestic politics and Turkish lobbying intervened, the entire edifice crumbled.

Netanyahu’s vision of absolute victory had been within reach, or so it seemed. Instead, the war has ended in a stalemate. The nuclear threat is diminished but not totally eliminated as 460 Kg enriched uranium of 60% is still inside Iran. Iran still retain Missile capabilities to hit Israel while its proxies in the region Hamas, Hezbollah and Shia Militias though substantially degraded yet are active across Gaza, Lebanon & Iraq. What began as a masterpiece of imagination ended in disappointment. This was not merely a missed opportunity it was a strategic disaster of historic proportions, exposing the hubris, miscalculations, and strategic failure of Israel’s political-military elite and its American partners.

The Mossad under Dedi Barnea, backed by Unit 8200’s cyber and signals-intelligence wizardry, spent four years and untold billions constructing an influence array that proved to be little more than digital smoke and mirrors. They overestimated their ability to engineer mass protests in a police state that had already murdered thousands in January 2026. The same Unit 8200 that once dazzled the world with pager explosions and cyber penetrations failed to deliver the human spark needed when it mattered most. The Iranian streets stayed silent not because the messaging was weak, but because the regime’s thugs with guns were stronger than any algorithm. That is a catastrophic intelligence and operational failure.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s obsession with regime change blinded everyone. He revived a fantasy first rejected under Olmert, pushed it through despite Military Intelligence scepticism, and bet the farm on a decapitation-plus-invasion model that ignored basic realities that Iran is not Syria, Kurds are not invincible liberators, and 90 million people do not topple a theocracy just because Tel Aviv and Washington tweet encouragement. The air strikes succeeded tactically, but the strategic decapitation left the regime intact enough to regroup and weaponize the Strait of Hormuz an outcome every pre-war assessment had flagged yet no one prepared for. Israel advanced the timeline recklessly, dragging a reluctant America into February fighting it was never fully committed to. The result? Forty days of war, thousands dead, billions spent, and zero outcome.

Worse, Russia and China provided decisive strategic and military lifelines that kept Tehran afloat. Moscow supplied drones, targeting intelligence for Iranian strikes on U.S. and Israeli assets, while Beijing delivered industrial and technological backbone support including potential air-defence systems and intelligence coordination via BeiDou. Joint Russia-China-Iran naval drills near the Strait underscored their shadow alliance, enabling Iran to sustain operations and close the chokepoint carrying 23% of global energy routes. Europe stayed out entirely, refusing to join the fray; NATO allies rejected Trump’s pressure to reopen the Strait, sparking a full-blown alliance crisis and Trump’s regular lashings on NATO allies. America found itself in its own Suez moment a humiliating signal of declining credibility as allies pursued independent European-led coalitions, exposing Washington’s isolation.

The fallout has gutted U.S. Gulf alliances. Iran emerged stronger, its control over the Strait stressing every GCC partner. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan now pursue regional mediation, while Qatar has made overt peace overtures to Tehran and Oman openly backs dialogue with the regime in Tehran. The UAE, sensing Iran’s rise as a regional power, has flipped toward tighter America-Israeli alignment exiting OPEC+ in a pointed move but the broader GCC is fracturing, forcing states to hedge with new blocs. This vacuum opens massive space for Russia and China to intervene deeper, as American security guarantees are now openly questioned. Geopolitically and geo-economically, it is an unmitigated disaster for U.S. as gasoline prices have surged to $4.19 a gallon, fertilizers prices have spiked hurting American farmers just before the midterms, inflation is inching up again, and bond-market risks forced emergency swap lines to the UAE and others to avert financial disorder.

This was collective strategic miscalculation as Israel and America bet on fantasy over facts, influence ops over ground truth, and personal ego over cold-eyed analysis. History will record this conflict in Iran not as a near-miss but as one of the greatest self-inflicted strategic blunders of the 21st century a humiliating testament to hubris that cost lives, treasure, and credibility of America & Israel for nothing. While the active hostilities may have ceased for now with US looking out for a comprehensive deal with Iran, there many chapters which are yet to unfold. What however remains clear that Iran war show limits of air power & conventional military superiority against asymmetrical warfare. This will have profound consequences on regional alliances, global order and more so the global economy as supply chain disruptions continue to rattle countries & continents across the world !

References

1. The complete victory that never was: This is how the operation to overthrow the Iranian regime was torpedoed - Ynet.IL - 25th April 2026 - https://www-ynet-co-il.translate.goog/news/article/yokra14748698?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true#google_vignette (Translated)

2. How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran - New York Times - 7th April 2026 - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html

3. Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of Iran - 28th April 2026 - WSJ - https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-tells-aides-to-prepare-for-extended-blockade-of-iran-da3be7a4

4. Strange figures and unexplained killings: The clues Mossad infiltrated Iran’s protests - 1st April 2026 - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/strange-figures-and-unexplained-killings-clues-mossad-infiltrated-irans-protests

5. Mossad spurs Iran protests, says agents with demonstrators in Farsi message - Jerusalem Post - 29th December 2025 - https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

6. Inside Iran’s crackdown on Afghan migrants after the war with Israel - 22nd July 2025 - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/22/inside-irans-crackdown-on-afghan-migrants