Yemen's Endless War

I. Introduction: A Humanitarian Crisis in the Shadows

Yemen’s war is a haunting tragedy overshadowed by more media-saturated conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine. Yet, the scale of human suffering unfolding in Yemen is immense and ongoing. Since the outbreak of full-scale hostilities in 2015, the war has taken a catastrophic toll on Yemen’s civilian population. Estimates suggest the death toll ranges between 13,500 and 80,000 people, but the secondary effects of warfamine, disease, and displacement—have been far more deadly. Over 16 million Yemenis lack access to food and clean water, and over a million have suffered from cholera outbreaks. The Saudi-led naval blockade has prevented the import of essential supplies, worsening the humanitarian collapse. Despite this, the conflict receives limited coverage on the global stage, overshadowed by strategic interests and indifference. As foreign powers funnel arms into the region, militias, terrorist organizations, and rival governments exploit the chaos. Yemen has become not just a domestic war, but a crucible of global power struggles. It is a proxy battlefield and a humanitarian disaster rolled into one. With each passing day, Yemen spirals further into violence, becoming a black hole for regional stability, international law, and human rights.

II. Historical Roots: Colonial Divides and Cold War Legacies

The seeds of Yemen’s modern conflict were planted long before 2015. The country was born of two vastly different entities: the North, governed as the Arab Republic of Yemen with Islamic nationalist leanings; and the South, a Marxist experiment known as the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. South Yemen, centered in Aden, was under British colonial rule until 1968. Post-independence, the Soviet Union stepped in as its primary patron, providing economic aid and naval power in return for ideological alignment. The Soviets saw Aden as a key foothold in the Indian Ocean during the Cold War. Conversely, North Yemen aligned more with conservative Arab states and was shaped by tribal loyalties and Islamic governance. The two states remained ideologically hostile until their merger in 1990 under the leadership of northern President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The collapse of the Soviet Union rendered South Yemen economically and politically vulnerable, forcing it into union. But the ideological, cultural, and political rifts never healed. The unification was more transactional than transformational, sowing long-term instability. These divisions remained dormant until they were reignited by external pressure, sectarian dynamics, and economic despair in the post-Cold War era, culminating in renewed calls for southern independence.

III. Geopolitical Repercussions Post-Gulf War

Yemen’s geopolitical positioning became precarious after the First Gulf War in 1991. President Saleh’s decision to support Saddam Hussein's Iraq placed Yemen at odds with Saudi Arabia and the U.S.-led coalition. As retribution, Saudi Arabia expelled over 800,000 Yemeni workers, cutting off remittance flows critical to Yemen’s fragile economy. Western and Gulf aid to Yemen dried up, leading to an economic nosedive and social unrest. This vacuum of resources and external support triggered renewed southern separatist sentiment. In 1994, Vice President Ali Salim al-Beidh, a southern leader, launched a secessionist campaign to restore South Yemen's independence. Saleh’s forces—led in part by then-Defense Minister Mansour Hadi—defeated the movement, further consolidating power in Sanaa. The suppression of southern dissent bred deep resentment and reinforced the perception that unification had created a northern hegemony rather than a true partnership. These events set the stage for a future cycle of resistance and retaliation. Yemen’s decision to defy Western expectations in 1991 had lasting geopolitical consequences. It isolated the country, pushed it toward internal collapse, and opened space for non-state actors and extremist ideologies to take root. This marked the start of Yemen’s long descent into instability and fragmentation.

IV. The Rise of Terror Networks: Al-Qaeda and ISIS

In the vacuum of governance left by Yemen’s political crises, terrorism found fertile ground. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) emerged in the early 2000s as one of the most dangerous branches of the global jihadist movement. Its notoriety grew following the USS Cole bombing in Aden in 2000, killing 17 American sailors. AQAP operated in Yemen's remote tribal regions, where state authority was virtually non-existent. The group exploited local grievances and leveraged tribal alliances to establish training camps and safe havens. Over time, AQAP plotted international attacks, including the failed 2009 “underwear bomber” plot on a U.S.-bound flight. Following the Arab Spring and the state's collapse, AQAP grew more emboldened, capturing territory in southern Yemen. In recent years, ISIS has also entered the fray, carving out territory and recruiting from disenfranchised Sunni youth. Clashes between AQAP and ISIS have been brutal, often involving assassinations, suicide bombings, and turf wars. Their presence has transformed Yemen into a hub for transnational terrorism. These groups also feed off foreign interventions, portraying themselves as defenders against Western imperialism and Shia hegemony. As the central government crumbled, Yemen became a safe harbor for jihadist factions with global aspirations.

V. The Arab Spring and Saleh’s Downfall

The Arab Spring of 2010–2011 added combustible fuel to Yemen’s smoldering internal divisions. Mass protests erupted across Yemen, driven by frustration over poverty, unemployment, corruption, and lack of democratic representation. In the north, the Zaydi Shiite Houthis—already in rebellion since 2004—intensified their opposition to the government. In the south, separatist movements revived calls for independence. President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled Yemen for over three decades through a mix of tribal patronage and military coercion, faced unprecedented pressure. After months of protest and an assassination attempt that left him gravely injured, Saleh agreed to step down under a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative. He was replaced by his deputy, Mansour Hadi, in a transitional arrangement backed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. But Saleh never truly left the stage. Retaining influence over the military and bureaucracy, he later allied with his former enemies the Houthis in a shocking reversal designed to unseat Hadi. Meanwhile, the democratic aspirations of the Arab Spring were crushed by power struggles and foreign interference. Yemen spiraled into deeper conflict as old alliances shifted and new ones emerged. Saleh’s downfall did not bring peace it instead shattered the fragile order holding the country together.

VI. Houthi Ascendancy and Iranian Backing

The Houthi movement, rooted in the Zaydi Shiite minority of northern Yemen, began as a cultural revivalist group in the 1990s but gradually evolved into a militant insurgency. Fueled by grievances over political exclusion, economic marginalization, and religious discrimination, the Houthis launched multiple uprisings from their stronghold in Saada province. The post-Arab Spring chaos provided them with an opportunity to expand. By 2014, they had seized the capital, Sanaa, and forced President Hadi to flee. The Houthis received robust support from Iran, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which saw Yemen as a key theater in its broader struggle against Saudi Arabia. Weapons, training, and funding flowed from Iran via maritime routes, helping the Houthis extend their influence across northern and central Yemen. Iranian support also allowed the Houthis to develop ballistic missile capabilities and drones some of which have been used in cross-border attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The alliance between the Houthis and former President Saleh gave them further momentum, though it later ended in betrayal when the Houthis killed Saleh in 2017 after he tried to switch sides. As Iranian proxies, the Houthis became central players in the regional Shia-Sunni proxy war playing out across the Middle East.

VII. The Saudi-Led Coalition and Western Military Backing

Alarmed by the rapid Houthi advance and fearing an Iranian proxy on its southern doorstep, Saudi Arabia formed a military coalition in 2015 to intervene in Yemen. The coalition, which included the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Sudan, and other Sunni-majority countries, launched Operation Decisive Storm to restore Hadi’s government and push back the Houthis. The military campaign relied heavily on airpower, with extensive bombing of Houthi-held areas, including civilian infrastructure. While Saudi Arabia claimed to target military installations, hospitals, schools, and markets were routinely hit, leading to accusations of war crimes. Western countries played a crucial enabling role. The U.S., U.K., and France provided arms, intelligence, aerial refueling, and maintenance support. Saudi Arabia deployed U.S.-made F-15 fighter jets, British Typhoon aircraft, and French helicopters in its campaign. American Abrams tanks, European warships, and air defense systems fortified the coalition’s efforts, particularly in enforcing the naval blockade. Despite mounting civilian casualties and international criticism, arms sales to the coalition continued. President Trump vetoed Congressional resolutions aimed at halting U.S. support, prioritizing a $110 billion arms deal with Riyadh. The result was a war fueled by some of the world’s most powerful democracies, waged with devastating consequences for Yemen’s civilians.

VIII. UAE’s Parallel Strategy: Rise of the STC and PMCs

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), while part of the Saudi-led coalition, pursued its own agenda in Yemen. Disillusioned with President Hadi’s leadership and wary of Islamist factions like the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood, the UAE began backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC) a separatist group aiming to reestablish an independent South Yemen. In 2017, the STC seized Aden and parts of the southern coast, sidelining Hadi’s forces. This fractured the anti-Houthi front and exposed deep rifts within the coalition. The UAE also turned to private military contractors (PMCs) to supplement its operations. Over 450 Latin American mercenaries mainly from Colombia, El Salvador, Panama, and Mexico were deployed in Yemen, many of whom had been trained by former U.S. military contractors linked to Erik Prince of Blackwater fame. These PMCs operated under contracts with the UAE, often based out of secret training facilities within Emirati territory. This outsourcing of warfare allowed the UAE to minimize its own military casualties while maintaining operational control. The deployment of foreign mercenaries also underscored how Yemen had become a testing ground for privatized war. The UAE’s support for the STC, though tactically successful, deepened Yemen’s fragmentation and further complicated prospects for peace and reunification.

IX. Russian Interests and Geopolitical Return

Russia's return to Yemen marks a significant shift in the geopolitical balance of the Arabian Peninsula. Drawing from Cold War ties with the former South Yemen, Moscow has reasserted itself diplomatically and strategically in the region. In 2018, Russia formally invited Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, the president of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), to Moscow a signal that it viewed the STC as a legitimate political actor and potential long-term ally. Russia’s intent to reopen its consulate in Aden reflects growing engagement with southern Yemen’s de facto authorities. The Kremlin sees Yemen not only as a means to revive its historical influence in the region but also as a strategic maritime hub. Control or influence over Socotra Island, located at the mouth of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, would give Russia oversight of one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. Russia’s moves in Yemen are closely tied to its broader regional strategy, which includes partnerships with the UAE in Syria and Libya, and counterbalancing the influence of Turkey, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood. As the U.S. and its Western allies face backlash over their involvement in the Yemen war, Russia positions itself as a power broker with fewer ideological strings attached.

X. Terror Reawakens: The AQAP-ISIS Power Struggle

While state actors and coalitions battle over political and territorial control, Yemen has also become a fertile battleground for jihadist groups. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continues to operate in central and southern Yemen, exploiting tribal grievances and the absence of governance. AQAP has historically been one of the most active and dangerous branches of the global Al-Qaeda network, responsible for numerous domestic and international plots, including attempts to bomb commercial flights and embassies. The rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) has added another layer of complexity. Though ISIS entered the Yemeni theater later than AQAP, it has carried out brutal attacks targeting civilians, Houthis, and even rival jihadists. The rivalry between the two organizations is intense and often violent, marked by ideological disputes and territorial clashes. This intra-jihadist conflict destabilizes Yemen further and ensures that any peace initiative must grapple with the enduring threat of terrorism. Both AQAP and ISIS thrive in Yemen’s failed state environment, where porous borders, disjointed authorities, and widespread arms flow provide ideal conditions for training, recruitment, and expansion. These groups also pose a threat beyond Yemen, with ambitions to attack Western interests and destabilize neighboring states across the Red Sea.

XI. The Strategic Chokepoint: Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, is one of the world’s most strategic maritime chokepoints. Linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, it facilitates the movement of over 6 million barrels of oil daily. Control over this strait is vital for global trade, energy security, and military logistics. For centuries, the Bab al-Mandeb has been a focal point of imperial ambition, but in modern times it has become a contested zone in the proxy wars of the Middle East. Houthi forces, backed by Iran, have occasionally targeted commercial shipping through the use of sea mines, drone boats, and anti-ship missiles threatening to disrupt this vital artery of global commerce. This has triggered increased naval deployments by the United States, France, and China, all of which maintain military bases in nearby Djibouti. The UAE, too, has occupied key Yemeni islands like Perim and Socotra, reinforcing its maritime posture. Russia’s interest in the region ties directly to this chokepoint. If it gains access to Socotra, it could challenge Western naval dominance in the region. As long as Yemen remains unstable, the Bab al-Mandeb will continue to be a flashpoint with global ramifications.

XII. The Houthi-Israel Clash: A New Front Emerges

In recent years, the Houthis have broadened their rhetoric and threats to include Israel, signaling the potential for the Yemeni conflict to spill into wider Middle Eastern hostilities. Following the normalization of relations between Israel and Gulf states like the UAE and Bahrain under the Abraham Accords, the Houthis declared solidarity with the Palestinians and began framing their struggle within a larger anti-Zionist narrative. In 2021 and beyond, they have claimed to develop long-range ballistic missiles and drones capable of reaching Israeli territory though most of these claims remain unverified. Iran’s hand in this escalation is evident. By extending its proxy war against Israel into Yemen, Iran seeks to encircle Israel from multiple fronts, supplementing its alliances with Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria. Israeli defense analysts now consider Yemen a potential launchpad for asymmetric warfare. This has prompted Tel Aviv to strengthen intelligence-sharing with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, further deepening the Gulf-Israel security nexus. While a direct Houthi-Israel confrontation remains unlikely in the immediate term, the rhetoric and capabilities being developed suggest that Yemen is increasingly tied into the broader Iranian strategy of regional encirclement heightening the risk of a wider conflagration in the Middle East.

XIII. The Human Cost: Starvation, Disease, and Despair

Beyond the geopolitical games and strategic calculations, Yemen's people endure a nightmare of epic proportions. Over 24 million Yemenis nearly 80% of the population require humanitarian assistance. Children are starving at alarming rates, with more than two million suffering from acute malnutrition. Cholera has returned with a vengeance, infecting over a million people, while the COVID-19 pandemic overwhelmed an already collapsed healthcare system. Hospitals lie in ruins, and medical staff work without salaries or supplies. Schools have been destroyed or repurposed by militias, depriving a generation of education. Access to clean water is almost non-existent in many regions, and food prices have skyrocketed due to blockades and inflation. Women and children are especially vulnerable, subject to displacement, violence, and trafficking. Humanitarian organizations face immense obstacles, including airstrikes, blocked access, and lack of security. The United Nations has called Yemen the worst humanitarian crisis of our time. Yet, aid remains underfunded and inconsistently delivered. Civilians are often caught between factions bombed by airstrikes, taxed by Houthis, or displaced by fighting. Their plight remains a footnote in international diplomacy. As the war drags on, the hope for peace dims, and Yemen’s people are left to suffer in a conflict they neither started nor control.

XIV. Conclusion: A Conflict Without Closure

The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, has escalated its campaign in the context of the Gaza conflict, frequently launching ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israeli territory and Red Sea shipping routes. In mid‑April 2025, the Houthis fired missiles towards the Israeli port city of Ashdod and Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, though one was intercepted by Israel’s air defenses, underscoring their expanding reach beyond Yemen’s borders. Backed by Iran through arms transfers, training, and advanced communications support, the Houthis have strengthened their control over significant parts of western Yemen, including Sanaa and the critical Hodeidah coastline. Iranian advisors have helped the group build a surveillance state within Yemen, leveraging fuel revenues and maritime traffic to fund operations and entrench their governance model

In response to persistent Houthi attacks, the United States under President Donald Trump’s directive has intensified air campaigns against Houthi‑controlled infrastructure, notably striking the Ras Isa fuel terminal on April 17, 2025, in a bid to sever the group’s main source of revenue; these strikes have resulted in the deaths of at least 58 people, according to Houthi‑run media. While Saudi Arabia has maintained a more cautious stance since its 2022 ceasefire largely providing overflight rights and logistical support rather than direct ground engagement the UAE has publicly denied involvement in any planned land offensive against the Houthis, despite reports of coordination with U.S. planners. This divergence highlights the complex and often competing strategies among Gulf partners aiming to contain the Iran-backed insurgency

The Yemeni war is a tragic tapestry of historical grievances, foreign interventions, ideological rivalries, and militarized chaos. What began as a domestic political crisis has evolved into a proxy war between regional and global powers. Iran backs the Houthis with arms and ideological support. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once aligned, now follow divergent agendas—Riyadh supporting the Hadi government, and Abu Dhabi empowering southern separatists. Western nations, particularly the U.S., U.K., and France, fuel the conflict through arms sales while posturing as peace advocates. Russia’s re-entry into Yemen adds another dimension, aligning with the UAE and seeking a naval foothold on the Red Sea. Meanwhile, terror networks like AQAP and ISIS exploit the vacuum, using Yemen as a breeding ground for transnational jihad. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, crucial for global shipping, makes Yemen a geopolitical prize. And the ordinary Yemeni displaced, malnourished, and traumatized is the ultimate victim of this intricate web of interests. There is no singular battlefield, no clear victory, and no coherent peace strategy. Yemen has become a theater of endless war, where the endgame is less about justice or sovereignty and more about leverage and control. Without urgent international mediation, Yemen's suffering will only deepen and its tragedy will endure as a shameful legacy of 21st-century geopolitics.