Whispers of War: The 12 Days That Shaped the Persian Gulf
The Middle East, no stranger to volatile upheavals, was once again set ablaze in a brutal 12-day war that tested the limits of Israeli military might, American strategic restraint, and Iran’s ability to endure, retaliate, and outmaneuver. At the heart of the conflict was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose audacious move to strike Iranian targets pushed the region to the brink of a broader conflagration. What began as a surgical decapitation mission against Iran’s military elite quickly spiraled into a dangerous confrontation that not only exposed the limitations of Israel’s military-industrial complex but also revealed deep fissures within the U.S.-Israel alliance most notably between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump.
A tense and murky drama unfolded in the Persian gulf, centered on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his relentless push for confrontation with Iran. The conflict, sparked by Israel's audacious strike on Iranian targets, was rooted in what many now say is questionable intelligence. Netanyahu, emboldened by Mossad’s infiltration of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), launched a decapitation strike that initially crippled Iran’s military leadership killing various leaders of IRGC and its nuclear scientists. Yet, the broader objective of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile systems, and drone capabilities fell far short of success. Iran’s air force and defences, long known to be modest, were never the real threat. Instead, it was their retaliatory ballistic missile barrages that rattled Israel, hammering Tel Aviv, Beersheba, Ramat Gan, Haifa, Ashdod in what insiders described as one of the war’s most harrowing days for Israeli civilians.
As the conflict spiraled out, Netanyahu’s government leaned heavily on the United States to escalate the fight, urging an all-out war against Iran that no U.S. president in the past 25 years had endorsed. President Donald Trump, wary of being dragged into an endless quagmire for regime change, opted for limited U.S. strikes to bail out his ally while orchestrating a delicate ceasefire through Qatar’s mediation. The move was a calculated one, prioritizing de-escalation and Israel’s immediate safety over Netanyahu’s hawkish ambitions of Regime Change in Iran.
But the Israeli leader’s response was defiant. It is reported that Mossad, in a stunning act of defiance of President Trump wanted to continue with assassination strikes against Iranian targets. The CIA, incensed by this betrayal, threatened to sever intelligence-sharing with Israel, forcing Mossad to reluctantly stand down. The clash between the two intelligence agencies mirrored the broader showdown between Trump and Netanyahu, exposing deep fissures in the U.S.-Israel alliance. President Trump reacted furiously after Israel sent a strike package into Iran on 24th June 2025, hours after the ceasefire brokered by him had kicked in. He wrote on Truth Social, “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”.
Few minutes later President Trump got on to a call with Benjamin Netanyahu and wrote, “ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES”. Steve Bannon in the evening of 24th June 2025 post the ceasefire raged on his show that President Trump has put together Ceasefire for the people of Israel noting that the Israelis got brutally hammered in last 12 days. He claimed that Israel had running out of ammunition and miscalculated what the Persians would be able to hit them with. He went on to blast Prime Minister Netanyahu for trying to sabotage President Trump’s ceasefire effort to rescue Israeli’s from a situation they had got into.
Israel ultimately did relent on President Trump’s warning by doing a symbolic strike on a radar near Tehran and recalled its jets back. Steve Bannon President Trump’s former advisor, some one who is a known voice among his MAGA base has even gone on to call Israel a protectorate of America not an ally and that it should behave like a protectorate whose defence is paid for by the American tax payers. Bannon further railed that Netanyahu government is out of control defying President Trump’s ceasefire seeking to advance Bibi’s regime change agenda in Tehran. President Trump himself was livid and in his media byte blasted Israel for going against his wishes by prolonging the conflict. It is important to note the MAGA resistance against the regime change wars in the middle east has been very vocal specially Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson. The MAGA base believing in America First over Israel wants President Trump to focus on debt, deficits, jobs and America’s broken economy as a priority.
On the other hand a leaked U.S. intelligence assessment by DIA under Central Command (Pentagon), circulated among congressional leaders, painted a sobering picture of the war’s outcome. The U.S. and Israeli strikes, including the use of B-2 MOP bunker-buster bombs, caved in the entrances to Iran’s fortified Fordow nuclear facility, buried 300 feet underground. Some infrastructure was damaged, but the centrifuges crucial to Iran’s nuclear ambitions remained largely intact. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated that Iran’s nuclear program was set back by mere months, not years, with a “low confidence” assessment suggesting operations could resume in as little as one to two months. The DIA assessment as reported by the CNN & New York Times is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes. The White House has categorically denied its assessment, however confirming the leak of the document as a classified one.
Worse, highly enriched uranium of some 400 kilograms enriched to 60 percent (sufficient to enrich further and make 8-10 nuclear bombs) was reportedly moved by the Iranians from Fordow, possibly to a secret third site disclosed to the IAEA before the American strikes. The revelation of untouched secret facilities underscored the limits of the U.S.-Israel campaign. The alleged facility of Kuh-e-Kolang south of Natanz enrichment facility is even deeper than Fordow and will be even more difficult to take out by American bunker buster bombs. As per IAEA this site is equipped with modern centrifuges that would allow Iran to obtain nineteen nuclear weapons in three months. Not just this one but there are many other secret sites as well that the Iranians have built. Israel now believes Iran has secret nuclear sites that were never attacked because, in their words: “Nobody knows where they are.” Even the US officials believe Iran maintains secret nuclear facilities that were not targeted in the strikes and remain operational.
In US Congress, whispers of the assessment’s “embarrassing” findings fueled suspicion. Representative Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, noted that the Trump administration’s delay in delivering a classified briefing to lawmakers likely stemmed from the report’s grim conclusions. “They don’t delay briefings that have good news,” he remarked pointedly. The DIA’s preliminary analysis, based on satellite imagery and signals intelligence, suggested Iran could “dig out” and restore power to Fordow, reviving its nuclear program far sooner than expected.
Across the Atlantic, the Israeli lobby reeled from what they perceived as a U.S. rebuke of Netanyahu’s war strategy. The MAGA faction in the U.S., vocal in their support for Trump, argued that his restrained intervention coupled with Qatar’s diplomatic maneuvering had saved Israel from a far worse fate under Iran’s ballistic missile volleys. “Bibi should be thanking Trump for saving him,” one commentator quipped, reflecting a growing sentiment that Israel had miscalculated Iran’s resilience. President Trump further quipped that Russia had offered to play a role in mediating this crisis between Israel and Iran.
President Trump further offered China sanctions relief from Iranian Oil if it chose to prevail on Iran to not close the Strait of Hormuz which could have lead to an Oil shock and inflation spike sinking his trade reset. This speaks volumes that it is no more that America which could stream roll into Baghdad, Iraq two decades back unquestioned. This America in 2025 is an empire in its twilight which has to engage Russia and China when it comes to dealing with Uranium supplies, NASA Rocket engines, Rare Earths, Auto Magnets and resolving the various conflicts across the world. The era of Uni-Polarity is over and this short Israel—Iran war further crystalized Multi-polarity which is great news for India and the world.
Looming over the conflict was a broader, more chilling concern i.e. the risk of nuclear proliferation. If Iran were to do a nuclear test in near future, it could ignite domino effect across the region. Saudi Arabia and Turkey, wary of Iran’s ambitions, would likely pursue their own nuclear arsenals, potentially turning to any willing supplier from Russia, China, North Korea or Pakistan. Such a shift could unravel the U.S.-led security architecture in the Gulf, where American military bases and the petrodollar system have long held sway. A nuclear-armed Gulf, free from reliance on the U.S. umbrella, could pivot toward Moscow or Beijing, reshaping global alliances. Trump’s fury at Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev’s suggestion that other nations might supply Iran with a nuclear device underscored the stakes that one misstep could trigger a chain reaction, pushing the world closer to a geopolitical tipping point.
As the dust settles on the 12-day war, the ceasefire between Iran & Israel has held barely. Israel, battered and low on ammunition, faces the reality of a strategic miscalculation. Netanyahu’s government, once defiant, now grapples with the limits of its power and the fragility of its alliances. The success of Iran’s missile and drone saturation tactics exposed the limits of Israel’s once-vaunted multi-layered air defense systems like Iron Dome, David’s Sling & Arrow. Mass swarms of drones & missiles overwhelmed these systems, signaling a critical shift in defense viability. The perceived invincibility of Israel’s deterrence doctrine has fractured and only a direct U.S. military involvement, including preemptive strikes on Iranian missile depots or nuclear sites, could protect it from a bigger destruction. For the United States, the war exposed the delicate balance of supporting an ally while avoiding a broader catastrophe. In the halls of Washington and Tel Aviv, one truth lingered: the specter of Iran’s nuclear program, bruised but unbroken, remained a ticking clock in a region teetering on the edge.
The 12-day war was more than just another Middle Eastern skirmish it was a litmus test for the durability of old alliances, the unpredictability of asymmetric retaliation, and the dangers of overestimating both intelligence and force. Netanyahu’s calculated gamble exposed Israel’s strategic limits. Trump’s diplomatic finesse may have averted a regional catastrophe, but it also revealed a sobering truth: even the most powerful allies have diverging red lines. As the Middle East simmers under the weight of unresolved rivalries, Iran’s nuclear clock continues to tick. Whether the next chapter is written in diplomacy or detonation remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the specter of war has not vanished it has merely changed form, waiting in the shadows for the next spark.